Analysis for next season’s matchup.
Tennessee versus Florida — also (formerly) known as the Third Saturday in September — always has meaning. That game is circled on the calendar regardless of team record or skill level. Florida leads the all-time series 32-21.
In last year’s matchup, the Vols waded into the Swamp and started with promise, up 7-0 midway through the first quarter. However, the wheels soon fell off for Tennessee, with Florida exploding for four straight TDs before halftime. The Swamp was deafening. The pressure was on. It was an all-too-familiar feel for the team in orange and white.
UT fought hard in the second half but could not close the gap, losing 29-16.
Now, the Vols turn their attention to this year. A rematch is coming, this time in Big Orange country. They have won two of the last four against the Gators in Neyland in 2016 and 2022.
Tennessee scored 38 points in both 2016 and 2022, and in similar fashion. Both games saw UT command big second halves and Florida scrape into the lead late, but not enough to close the deal. They also featured the iconic Checker Neyland.
What will happen this year, in 2024? Will Tennessee claim revenge and even up Heupel’s record against the Gators?
Tennessee’s offense has no doubt improved under Coach Heupel’s watch. Recent recruiting has been on the uptick. UT added former five-star tackle Lance Heard from LSU, helping to fill the gap from the departure of Gerald Mincey, who left for Kentucky. Cooper Mays and Javontez Spraggins also return, so quarterback Nico Iamaleava should have a strong offensive line presence.
Tennessee’s last game was the Citrus Bowl against Iowa, a 35-0 win for the Volunteers. Iamaleava had a strong first start, throwing for 151 yards at a completion rate 12/20, good for 7.6 yards per pass. He punched in three rushing touchdowns and had no turnovers. The last time Tennessee won a shutout bowl game was 3-0 over Texas A&M in the 1957 Gator Bowl.
The Gators did not play in a bowl game last year, ending the year with a 5-7 record. They made a move to hire Will Harris as the new secondary coach, and added four defensive backs in the transfer portal, including Washington safety Asa Turner who logged 42 snaps in the National Championship game.
Quarterback Graham Mertz, running back Montrell Johnson, and receiver Eugene Wilson III all return to boost the offense. Mertz led the SEC in completion (72.9%) percentage last season.
As for the defensive side, Florida gave up an average of 38.2 points over a five-game skid to end the 2024 season, leading Billy Napier to fire his defensive line and secondary coaches.
That fact would add to the narrative that, in recent years, Florida tends to start the year strong before fading out. Tennessee, historically playing them in September, often would get their best. See 2021 or 2023 for example. Playing the Gators in October should help the hometown Vols.
No doubt the looming October matchup will be competitive. Neyland Stadium will put the ‘rocking’ in Rocky Top. If the Vols manage to start the season 5-0, it could be considered a trap game, as it is right before big bad Alabama comes to town. No one has forgotten the monumental 52-49 upset win over the Tide that sent the goalposts into the Tennessee River two years ago. Tennessee must treat the Florida game importantly and not underestimate them.