With power conference tournaments set to go, let’s look at our Bracketology for the second-to-last time before Selection Sunday
Today is March 13 which means 31 of 33 conference tournaments are underway. Today will be all-encompassing. We will look at the bubble in depth once again as it is as tight as possible with endless amounts of bid-stealers alive and well, vying for those spots.
Before we get to it, here is the bracket-style layout:
Seeding Breakdown
A quick explanation: Seeds are boxed to represent where they can reach by Selection Sunday. For example, let’s look at Baylor at the 10th overall seed. They have a dotted line beneath them. What this means is they and then teams above them cannot fall past the seed line the dotted line appears in. Creighton, Marquette, Iowa State, and Baylor will not fall past the 3-line. However, what that dotted line also means is that teams below it until the next solid line can move up past it where a solid line would mean they’re blocked in to the available seeds around them.
Again, the lines indicate seed line position, not exact seed position.
Hoping that made sense, let’s break these groups down.
The Final 1-Seed
Purdue, Houston, and UConn are locks for 1-seeds; the only question between the three is who gets the top overall seed in the tournament. However, that final 1-seed is a battle between three teams. Tennessee is currently holding onto the final 1-seed despite a loss to Kentucky at home. With Arizona also losing, Tennessee remained as a 1-seed. North Carolina was further off the pace than Arizona entering the weekend, but their win at Duke brought them to a near dead heat with the Wildcats, but it gave the Tar Heels a slight edge.
Performances in conference tournaments will essentially sort this out. Arizona is at a deficit given the overall weak state of the PAC-12 and will have to win it. They’ll need Tennessee to fall before their championship game and North Carolina to slip up at any point to have a chance.
2-Seed Swap
Creighton and Marquette ascend up to the 2-line, swapping spots with the two Big 12 teams in Iowa State and Baylor. Creighton had a great past two games, beating Marquette to start the month and then Villanova on the road this past Saturday. As for Marquette, after dropping consecutive games to Creighton and UConn, they hit the road to get a win at Xavier to finish tied for second in the Big East.
As for Iowa State and Baylor, their drops are due to losses this past weekend. The difference between the two teams and Marquette are incredibly thin, but with Iowa State losing at the Octagon of Doom and Baylor losing at Texas Tech, Marquette’s win at Villanova was enough to give them the boost for now.
Curious case of Kansas
The Jayhawks are depleted, just had their worst conference record under Bill Self, and without Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar for the entirety of the Big 12 tournament, they could be staring down an early exit from the conference tourney as well. We’ve seen what this team is capable of at full strength, but they haven’t been in over a month. Their depth is nonexistent, especially inside, and if they lose early, either to Cincinnati or Baylor, they will wind up on the 4-line in the South Region.
Top 30 seeds at a glance
Most to gain: 11. Duke Blue Devils
Duke winning their conference tournament locks them in as a 2-seed which is a major deal because it likely makes them the highest seeded ACC team and get them to the Charlotte region.
Most to lose: 18. Nevada // 19. Texas Tech
Nevada and Texas Tech are a pair of 5-seeds with very little room to go up in seed line, largely because of the gap in résumés of the them and the teams above them. However, they aren’t overly better than the teams beneath them should one of them have a poor showing in their conference tournaments. A first round loss for either Nevada or Texas Tech would equate to a fall of at least one seed line, maybe even two.
Bubble at a Glance
LAST FOUR IN
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St. John’s | Colorado | Indiana State | New Mexico
↳ For three of these four teams, the path forward is clear and obvious: win as many games as possible in your conference tournaments. For St. John’s, that path is incredibly difficult as they’ll have to beat Seton Hall and likely square off with UConn in the semifinals. Two wins there should make them a lock, but it’s unlikely.
↳For Colorado, they absolutely need a win over Washington State and/or Arizona in the PAC-12 Tournament.
↳Indiana State’s fate is completely out of their hands after losing to Drake in the MVC Championship. They need bid stealers to remain at an absolute minimum.
↳New Mexico needs at least two wins in the Mountain West Tournament. One more Q1 win should be enough.