An in-depth look at conference tiebreakers and CFP scenarios ahead of rivalry week
The always right and never doubted College Football Playoff Committee released latest CFP ranking on Tuesday night:
And here is how the CFP bracket would look today…
Tennessee: it’s so very simple. Win, and you’re in. Go Big Orange. Beat Vandy.
Obviously, the intra-conference first round matchups are not going to happen here, but my goodness, if there isn’t a more glaring reason as to why 8 teams was the perfect format for this. In any fashion, Tennessee is currently matched up for a game in between the hedges in Athens, a place where they were outclassed by Georgia just a couple of weeks ago. Suffice to say, not the best matchup here. The most interesting situation here, for me, are the first four teams out.
Clemson, despite having one win against a team over .500 with a 31-point loss to Georgia, a two possession loss at home to Louisville, is lined up as the first team out. The most fascinating part about this is should they beat South Carolina at home, their best chance at a playoff spot is to…not play for their conference championship. That’s right, there’s a team vying for a playoff spot who, should they actually make their conference championship game and lose, would eliminate them from playoff contention while not making it would likely position them for an at-large bid. The mere concept of that is backwards in nature.
The following teams are the three-loss squads in the SEC based on a perception of supremacy that has been dealt a hefty blow over the past 10 days. Let’s take a look at their résumés, shall we?
ALABAMA
Quality Wins (vs. teams with 8+ wins): 41-34 W vs. UGA // 34-0 W @ Mizzou
Bad Losses (vs. teams with 5+ losses): 40-35 L @ Vandy // 24-3 L @ Oklahoma
Other Losses: 24-17 L @ Tennessee (9-2)
OLE MISS
Quality Wins: 27-3 W @ SCAR // 28-10 W vs. UGA
Bad Losses: 20-17 L vs. Kentucky // 24-17 L @ Florida
Other Losses: 29-26 L @ LSU (7-4)
SOUTH CAROLINA
Quality Wins: 44-20 W vs. TAMU // 34-30 W vs. Mizzou
Bad Losses: None
Other Losses: 36-33 L vs. LSU // 27-3 L vs. Ole Miss // 27-25 L @ Alabama
It’s fascinating that these are the trio of teams potentially competing for the final spot in the CFP. Alabama and Ole Miss have combined for four losses to teams with at least 5 losses. The entirety of the CFP 12-team field right now has a total of three. To add onto that, two of South Carolina’s losses are a blowout loss to Ole Miss and a narrow defeat at Alabama. Best case scenario is that the final week goes chalk. Georgia barely did its part in Clean Old Fashioned Eight overtimes, so SMU and Tennessee most notably just need to win and shut down this mess driven by the bald men of college football media using unnecessary hypothetical matchups and inane talk about “talent composite” to push the narrative that any of these three teams belong despite their horrid résumés. Recruiting builds a roster, but it doesn’t win football games.
Now, that all being said, it’s becoming much clearer on how things will play out from here, so let’s break down the conference championship scenarios heading into the final week of the season and how it may affect seeding:
ACC
— Miami wins @ Syracuse, faces SMU in ACC Championship Game.
↳ Winner of Miami/SMU likely clinches 3-seed.
— Clemson needs Miami loss @ Syracuse to reach ACC Championship Game.
↳ Clemson win in ACCCG likely leads to 4-seed. A loss likely eliminates Clemson altogether.
BIG TEN
— Ohio State beats Michigan, faces Oregon in Big Ten Championship.
— Penn State beats Maryland, Ohio State loses to Michigan. Penn State faces Oregon in Big Ten Championship.
— Indiana beats Purdue, Ohio State and Penn State lose. Indiana faces Oregon in Big Ten Championship.
↳ If matchup is Oregon vs. OSU in Big Ten Championship, winner clinches 1-seed, loser locks up 5-seed.
↳ If matchup is Oregon vs. Penn State: Oregon win equals 1-seed, loss likely leads to 5-seed. Penn State win equals 2-seed, loss leads to 7-seed as OSU would be seeded higher due to head to head result.
↳ If matchup is Oregon vs. Indiana: Oregon win equals 1-seed, loss likely leads to 5-seed. Indiana win equals 2-seed.
— Texas wins @ Texas A&M, faces Georgia in SEC Championship.
↳ Texas wins rematch of lone loss against UGA, clinches 2-seed.
BIG XII
Here we go…there are nine teams with a shot at making the Big XII Championship Game.
Four-Way Tie Scenario
— Colorado, BYU, Arizona State, Iowa State all win: 4-way tie. This would mean Arizona State vs. Iowa State for the Big XII Championship and the only spot for a Big XII team in the CFP in all likelihood.
Three-Way Tie Scenarios
— BYU loses to Houston:
↳ *IF* West Virginia def. Texas Tech: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
↳ *IF* Texas Tech def. West Virginia then Baylor def. Kansas & Cincinnati def. TCU: Colorado vs. Iowa State
↳ *IF* Texas Tech def. WVU but Baylor and/or Cincinnati lose: Colorado vs. Arizona State
— Arizona State loses to Arizona:
↳ Iowa State vs. BYU
— Iowa State loses to Kansas State:
↳ Arizona State vs. BYU
Two-Way Tie Scenarios
— Whichever two teams are tied will play for Big XII Championship
SEC
Georgia is locked into the SEC Championship Game once again. There are only two scenarios within the SEC that can happen, and either one will be decided in the Texas vs. Texas A&M game. If Texas wins, they’re in. If A&M can pull off the upset at home, it will be the Aggies who head to Atlanta.
— Georgia vs. Texas:
↳ Georgia win: UGA clinches 2-seed behind Oregon/OSU Big Ten Champion. Texas slots in as 6-seed.
↳ Texas win: Texas clinches 2-seed behind Oregon/OSU Big Ten Champion. Georgia is potentially last at-large.
— Georgia vs. Texas A&M:
↳ Texas A&M win likely clinches 4-seed in CFP. A loss eliminates Aggies altogether.
Group-of-Five Conference Championship Tracker
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
— Tulane vs. Army
CONFERENCE USA
— Jacksonville State has clinched and will host.
↳ Liberty clinches with win over Sam Houston.
↳ Western Kentucky clinches with win over Jacksonville State and Liberty loss.
↳ Sam Houston clinches with win over Liberty and Western Kentucky loss.
MAC
— Miami Redhawks vs. Ohio Bobcats
MOUNTAIN WEST
— Boise State has clinched and will host.
↳ *IF* UNLV def. Nevada, it will be UNLV @ Boise State with a berth to the CFP possibly on the line.
↳ *IF* UNLV loses, it will be Colorado State @ Boise State.
SUN BELT
— Louisiana has clinched following South Alabama’s loss to Texas State yesterday and will host with win over UL Monroe.
— *IF* Marshall def. James Madison (JMU is favored) OR Georgia Southern loses at home to Appalachian State, it will be Marshall vs. Louisiana.
↳ *IF* Georgia Southern wins and Marshall loses, it will be GA Southern vs. Louisiana.
Join us later next week as we will predict all of the Bowl Games following Rivalry Week. Go Vols, beat Vandy!