College Football Playoff Picture: What this weekend’s results mean for Tennessee

Things are about to get interesting.

What a weekend it was. Upsets and near misses highlighted the Saturday slate, setting the stage for a shakeup as the new rankings come out on Tuesday night. The results may turn out to be a mixed bag for Tennessee, which saw a new player re-enter the at-large bid race. The Volunteers do have an opportunity to leave nothing to chance this weekend, however.

Let’s take a look around the results of the weekend and the ramifications.

Miami finally runs out of magic

From the hail mary that wasn’t, to the comeback at Cal, to the comeback against Duke — Miami’s time finally came. A trip to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech didn’t go well, as Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets came away with a big upset.

What happens next in the ACC? SMU — yes SMU is in the ACC — is in the driver’s seat. The Mustangs are undefeated in conference play, while Clemson and Miami now each have one loss. It certainly appears the ACC will be a one-bid league.

Georgia picks up loss No. 2

What a complete MESS the SEC is right now. The Bulldogs took their second loss of the season, going down in Oxford ahead of next week’s matchup against Tennessee. The Vols now sit atop the SEC standings alongside of Texas and Texas A&M, all three with one loss.

Georgia now has no room for error, needing to beat Tennessee, UMass and Georgia Tech to secure an at-large bid. The Bulldogs have issues, starting with quarterback Carson Beck. Their offense hasn’t been able to attack downfield, while Beck has turned into a turnover machine in recent weeks.

We know how good Kirby Smart is in these situations. He’s going to tell his team that nobody is giving them a chance and everyone has counted them out. Will that be enough for the Bulldogs to bounce back and win a must-win game against Tennessee?

On the other end of this equation is Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss, which just stormed back into the race. The Rebels bounced all the way up to No. 10 in the AP Poll, which could spell bad news for Tennessee should they lose this weekend at Georgia. Could Ole Miss keep Tennessee out of the field if both have 10-2 records? It’s very possible.

Alabama alive, LSU eliminated from the at-large race

As it turns out, LSU really is just that team back in September that lost to a bad USC squad. Alabama absolutely thumped LSU in Baton Rouge, ending any chance of the Tigers securing an at-large bid. LSU still has an outside shot of making the SEC title game with two conference losses.

On the other side, Alabama is very much alive and well, and Tennessee’s win over the Crimson Tide looks even better. Alabama finishes with Mercer, at Oklahoma and Auburn, which should leave them with a 10-2 record. Back to back convincing blowout wins over ranked teams have Alabama in a strong spot with just three weeks left to play.

BYU remains in control of the Big 12, but Colorado is now lurking

Can’t you just see it now? Coach Prime in the College Football Playoff with his son — a potential top pick playing quarterback — would ESPN even bother talking about anything else? That situation is now on the table with the Buffaloes now in the No. 2 spot in the Big 12. Deion Sanders is now dangerously close to taking a trip to Jerry World to play in the Big 12 title game. What a perfect script.

Colorado hosts Utah and Colorado State to end the year, while they also must make a tricky trip to Kansas to face the Jayhawks. A logjam of 4-2 records exist behind Colorado — Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia and Arizona State.

Current Tennessee College Football Playoff Projections

ESPN Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Tennessee

ESPN Schlabaugh: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Tennessee

ESPN Dinich: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Tennessee

CBS Sports: Tennessee misses the field (Likely to the Citrus Bowl)

Action Network: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Penn State

Bottomline: The Ole Miss result was bad in the long run for Tennessee

The Rebels surging back into the College Football Playoff picture could turn out to be bad news for Tennessee should they lose to Georgia this week. A loss there would keep them out of the SEC Championship game needing a win over a tough Vanderbilt team to finish 10-2.

The real problem lies in the Big Ten, where Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Penn State seem like virtual locks considering the rest of their schedules. That’s going to take three at-large bids. Notre Dame figures to be another, although they do still have to go to USC and host a really strong Army team.

That leaves the SEC with an auto-bid for the title team, then three more at-large spots open with with group of five bid.

Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee — one of these teams will get left out as things currently stand.

Tennessee and Georgia is the only head to head matchup left among these five. For Georgia, it’s a must win. For Tennessee, it’s not quite an elimination game, but they would likely need some help if they lost. Would the committee keep Tennessee ahead of Alabama if they’re both 10-2? Head to head should mean something, after all. However, it’s gets messy when you consider Alabama’s win over Georgia. That’s when you get into the ‘eye test’ and the ‘what have you done for me lately’ arguments.

One thing is for sure. Tennessee can squash all this by simply going into Athens this weekend and ending the Bulldogs’ season. That should be the mentality going into the weekend, especially with considering how bad Georgia looked on Saturday night.

Georgia is currently a 9.5 point favorite over Tennessee.

We’ll see what the committee thinks tomorrow night when they reveal their second batch of rankings.