Elite Eight: A look at Houston and keys to a Tennessee victory

This is going to be a battle.

The chalk of the 2025 NCAA Tournament just keeps hitting, and the Midwest Region is no different. No. 1 seed Houston advanced to the Elite Eight on Friday night, setting up a matchup with No. 2 seed Tennessee in Indianapolis.

It’s the third 1-2 seed matchup of this year’s Elite Eight, following Alabama-Duke and Auburn-Michigan State. 1-seed Florida will take on 3-seed Texas Tech in the only non 1-2 matchup of the round.

Tennessee-Houston was one of the most talked about potential matchups when the bracket came out, and for good reason. These teams are nearly identical, built on toughness and defense. They both have multiple guards capable of taking over games, too.

How did we get here?

Tennessee opened their tournament with a relatively easy win against Wofford, moving on to face a tough UCLA team. The Bruins are cut from the same cloth as both Houston and Tennessee, and gave the Volunteers a challenge early on. A late spurt in the first half gave the Vols control and they would cruise from there.

On Friday night against Kentucky, Tennessee was out for blood. Zakai Zeigler nailed a corner three early to give the Vols a six point lead and they never looked back. Tennessee was clearly the tougher team that wanted it more, as evidenced by the +10 they posted in the rebounding battle. Kentucky took two in the regular season, but Tennessee got the one that counted.

Houston won their opener by 38 points, but then ran into an underseeded Gonzaga team in the second round. The Cougars controlled the entire game — all the way up until the final minute. A once 14-point lead evaporated late, but Houston would hold on to win by five. LJ Cryer’s 30 points led the way.

Houston moved on to face Purdue in the Sweet 16, and they were never able to shake the Boilermakers. Purdue took a lead into the halftime break, but Houston quickly established a lead. On a night where Cryer didn’t have it, Milos Uzan took over to score 22 points. He shot 6-9 from three point range.

But Purdue came storming back at the end and hit a late three to tie it. Kelvin Sampson drew up a beauty of an inbounds play for the game winner to avoid overtime and advance.

A look at Houston

The Cougars started slow, but they sure found it when things really started to matter. Houston dropped games to San Diego State, Alabama and Auburn to open the season. Sitting at 4-3, they would only lose one more time to get to this point.

Three veteran guards and a physical big man lead the way for Houston. LJ Cryer is a name you probably know by now, leading the Cougars with 15.3 points per game. Emanuel Sharp follows with 12.6 and Milos Uzan checks in with 11.8 per game.

Here’s the kicker — they all shoot north of 41 percent from three point range. Houston doesn’t take that many threes (20 per game) but they make them count when they do. The Cougars rank first in the entire country in three-point percentage at a whopping 39 percent.

Houston also ranks first in points allowed in all of D-1. They’re KenPom’s top ranked defense, checking in two spots ahead of Tennessee at No. 3.

Down low, 6-8 senior J’Wan Roberts will flat wear you out. He’s capable of scoring 20+ on any given night, or he can beat you up on the boards as he did against Purdue (12). Roberts battling down there against Igor Milicic, Felix Okpara and Cade Phillips will be a key to this game. 6-11 Okpara in particular will have a length advantage with all of Houston’s big men checking in at 6-8. In a physical game, keeping Okpara out of foul trouble will be a big deal.

The setup for Tennessee — a thought

This is a pretty fascinating spot for Tennessee. Motivation is never a factor this time of year, don’t get me wrong. This group is playing for each other — a team loaded with seniors that knows the end is sneaking up on their beloved head coach Rick Barnes.

However, a lot went into that dominating win against Kentucky. Tennessee had already dropped two games to the Wildcats, which are a bitter rival. The lead up to that one was hostile, perhaps the biggest Tennessee-Kentucky game of all time, which is saying something.

Tennessee came out completely locked in. They were out for blood and they got it.

We see this all the time, particularly in this sport — a big win followed by a flat performance in the next game no matter who it is. That shouldn’t happen with this veteran group in what might just be the biggest game in program history, but it’s certainly on my mind seeing how much it meant to this group during the game.

What are the odds?

Houston opened as a 3.5 (-110) point favorite, according to Fanduel Sportsbook. That 3.5 number is moving in Tennessee’s direction, now listed at +2.5.

What really catches your eye here is the total, which lands at 123.5. The oddsmakers are expecting an all out rock fight considering the style of both teams. For reference, Fanduel lists the Alabama-Duke total on Saturday night at 173.5, a full 50 points over this game.

Tennessee’s key to victory: Shut down LJ Cryer

Houston’s senior guard has been hot and cold lately, dropping 30 points on Gonzaga and then just five against Purdue. The Boilermakers had that game right there for the taking, and frankly should have gotten the opportunity to play overtime after a missed push-off late.

Cryer was 2-13 from the field and 1-5 from three against Purdue. He now has to try and bounce back from that performance against two of the most tenacious defensive guards in the country, Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack. Houston has two more capable guards, but Cryer makes the engine go. Zeigler won’t be giving up too much size to him either, with Cryer checking in at 6-1.

Tennessee’s on-ball defense will be huge in this one, just as it was on Friday. If Barnes can get that effort again, along with Okpara coming away with some wins on the boards, he’ll have Tennessee in its first ever Final Four.

Tip-off between Houston and Tennessee is set for 2:20 p.m. ET on CBS.