Tennessee’s first appearance in the College Football Playoff didn’t go as planned last season. The Volunteers ran into a buzzsaw in Columbus, something you can’t exactly feel too bad about considering how the rest of the bracket played out.
Josh Heupel and company are looking for another shot this season, flying completely under the radar this time. Tennessee was in the headlines for the wrong reasons this offseason, losing quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal after spring practice. The staff scrambled and ended up bringing in former Appalachian State quarterback Joey Aguilar.
Uncertainty under center is the main reason why everyone seems to have taken a step back on Tennessee’s 2025 projection. However, ESPN’s analytics remain high on the Volunteers heading into the season.
ESPN Allstate Playoff Predictor placed Tennessee tenth on the list of teams that could make the CFP. That’s much higher than the consensus for the Vols, who don’t even appear in several preseason top 25 polls.
Heather Dinich agrees that the metric is overvaluing Tennessee.
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is too high for the Vols, who return just 39% of their offense from last season’s playoff team (110th in the FBS). With former quarterback Nico Iamaleava at UCLA, and running back Dylan Sampson and the top three receivers from last season also gone, this team’s entire offensive identity is a question mark. The season opener against Syracuse in Atlanta is hardly a gimme to start the nation’s 15th-most difficult schedule. (ESPN, Dinich)
Tennessee will also be working in new starters four offensive line positions — all but left tackle. How productive this line can be in the run game powering DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas will go a long way towards determining Tennessee’s success this season. They’ll also need to find answers at receiver very quickly, especially with Georgia looming in week three.
Speaking of, the Georgia matchup is where Tennessee’s roadmap to the CFP really begins. They get the once again reloading Bulldogs at home very early this season and it could be a game that sets the tone for the rest of the season. A loss there and things get tough with at Alabama, Oklahoma and at Florida left on the schedule.
What the committee will like: Avoid going 0-2 against Bama and Georgia. This is the kind of schedule that helped Alabama finish as the committee’s top three-loss team last fall. The Tide had wins against Georgia, LSU and South Carolina, and that helped them stay in contention even with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. If Tennessee can do the same, and earn two or three statement wins, it might be able to earn some forgiveness in the committee room for multiple slip-ups elsewhere. (ESPN, Dinich)
Tennessee will also have to handle Arkansas, Vanderbilt, at Kentucky and at Mississippi State. As we saw last season, you can’t sleep on any of these matchups as the likely favorite coming in. Syracuse in the opener can also go into this category, despite Fran Brown losing a ton of talent off of last year’s squad.
ESPN has Tennessee’s national title odds set at +6000 heading into the season. Their analytics department gives them just over a 38 percent chance to make the CFP field and a 2.3 percent chance to win the national title. Those odds are better than Texas A&M, Ole Miss and LSU who check in just behind the Volunteers.