We’re now just weeks away from the return of college football, where the Tennessee Volunteers will begin their push towards the College Football Playoff. The field expands from four to 12 this season, giving a team like Tennessee a chance to make the field with two losses.
Looking ahead to the season and using their Football Power Index, ESPN broke down the field and handicapped everyone’s chances at making the 12-team bracket. Tennessee checked in with a 36.9 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. FPI gives the Volunteers a 2.7 percent chance at winning the National Championship.
Tennessee has the ninth best odds to make the field, according to FPI.
As we’ve been talking about all offseason, Tennessee’s schedule really boils down to three games — at Oklahoma, Alabama and at Georgia. ESPN’s Heather Dinich agrees.
Tennessee should be better than it was last year on both offense and defense, but it still might be a three-loss team on the bubble because the schedule is so challenging. There are high expectations for quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be surrounded by talent and an offensive line that returns three starters. The defensive line should be the strength on that side, but the secondary struggled last year and will be rebuilt this season. Can the Vols win at OU, at home against Bama and at Georgia? ESPN’s FPI says they’re 0-3 against that lineup. (Heather Dinich, ESPN)
Of course, taking care of business and winning the games you’re supposed to is a must as well. Dinich naturally points back to that devastating 2022 loss to South Carolina as an example. The Volunteers should be favored in every matchup outside of Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma — taking care of NC State, Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Kentucky is a must for the Vols to make the field.
What the committee won’t like: An inexplicable loss in addition to forgivable ones. In 2022, South Carolina shocked Tennessee in November with a 63-38 win, essentially eliminating the Vols from the CFP. Last year, another loss at rival Florida marred what should have been an undefeated start. The problem in each of those two seasons was that those upsets compounded other, more respectable losses. The selection committee will still consider Tennessee this year if it has one or two losses to ranked opponents — especially on the road — but bad defeats have historically been difficult for teams to overcome. If the Vols are going to reach even an expanded field, they’ve got to win the games they’re supposed to.
Georgia checked in at the top spot with a 79 percent chance to make the field. Oregon followed, then it was Texas, Ohio State and Penn State to round out the top five. SEC foes Alabama landed at No. 7, then it was Missouri at No. 8. Tennessee was ninth and Oklahoma rounded out the top ten.
The new-look College Football Playoff is set to begin on Friday, December 20th. Three more first round matchups will follow on Saturday, December 21st. The quarterfinal round will begin on December 31st and the semifinals will begin on January 9th. Things will wrap on January 20th in Atlanta in the CFP National Championship Game.