How safe are the Vols?
The calendar is just about ready to flip on over to November, which means the College Football Playoff race is about to really heat up. We’re now under one week away from getting the first batch of official rankings from the committee, which will be the first ever mock 12-team bracket.
Tennessee checks in at No. 7 in the current AP Poll, bouncing back from a loss to Arkansas with wins over Florida and Alabama. The victory over the Crimson Tide was one that they absolutely had to have with a looming road trip to Georgia remaining on the schedule.
The Volunteers have work to do, but according to the ESPN Playoff Predictor, they still have a 78 percent chance to make the field by going 4-1 down the stretch (with an assumed loss to Georgia).
In ESPN’s mock 12-team projection this week, Tennessee just snuck in as the No. 12 seed.
Why they should be worried: The loss at Arkansas isn’t horrible, but if the Vols don’t win at Georgia on Nov. 16, they will be banking heavily on their win against Alabama to sway the committee. Wins against NC State and Oklahoma aren’t what they once appeared to be.
ESPN Analytics says: Georgia has a 59.8% chance to win on Nov. 16.
Tennessee would travel to Happy Valley to face Penn State in the first round in this scenario. The winner would move on to face No. 4 BYU.
Tennessee is being pushed down in these projections due to the sudden emergence of Texas A&M, which is now in the driver’s seat of the SEC. The Aggies have road trips to South Carolina and Auburn left before hosting No. 6 Texas to end the regular season.
Texas and Georgia join the Aggies in the SEC with one loss. Obviously the top of this race will be worked out on the field, with Georgia-Tennessee and Texas A&M-Texas left to play. Tennessee could likely more or less clinch a berth in the field with a win in Athens, but if they don’t, the outlook is fuzzy at best at this point. 10-2 Tennessee still likely finds a way in, but they’ll also need a good showing to squash any ‘eye-test’ arguments. They’ll also need to handle a much-improved Vanderbilt team to end the season.
We’ll get a sense of where the committee is at next week — Tuesday, November 5th — with a look at their first projection and top 25 rankings.