Some surprising numbers.
Tennessee was left out of the way-too-early top 25 rankings done by ESPN last month, but the network’s metric systems sure love the Volunteers going into the fall. Tennessee debuted at No. 10 overall in ESPN’s Football Power Index this week, piggybacking off their No. 13 ranking in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ metric.
The Vols were given a 97.5 percent chance of reaching six wins. They were given a 38.5 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff field and a five percent chance at making a National Championship appearance.
Tennessee is being anchored by defense here, as evidenced by their ranking of seventh in S&P+. That’s a pretty interesting number considering Tennessee sent James Pearce, Omarr Norman-Lott, Omari Thomas and Elijah Simmons to the league. The Vols also lost safeties Will Brooks and Jakobe Thomas.
Still, guys like Joshua Josephs, Arion Carter and Boo Carter are expected to take big steps forward. Experienced players like Bryson Eason, Dominic Bailey, Jaxson Moi, Andre Turrentine, Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson should keep Tim Banks’ group among the best in the SEC this fall.
And now for the total and complete wildcard — the offense. You could argue Tennessee is overrated in both metrics simply because nobody really has an idea of what the Vols have under center. Joey Aguilar is the assumed starter, but he’s got a lot of ground to make up in terms of learning the offense before the fall. Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre will push him for the job in camp. However it turns out, the quarterback spot will remain a mystery until the Volunteers take the field in Atlanta.
You also have to replace a handful of receivers, star back Dylan Sampson and four starters on the offensive line. There’s plenty for Josh Heupel to figure out on that side of the ball before late August, which makes it surprising that Tennessee would check in so high to kick things off in the metric.
Tennessee was the fifth-ranked SEC team in the new FPI rankings, coming in behind (1) Texas, (2) Georgia, (3) Alabama and (8) Texas A&M. The Vols checked in just ahead of LSU, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn and Oklahoma. The SEC held 11 of the top 20 spots in the metric.
Syracuse, who Tennessee will open with in Atlanta, was ranked 62nd with so little returning production.