The middle seeds at-large seeds see a lot of traffic this week
Welcome back to the brackets! This Friday, as we have come to the finish of the regular season, we take a look at the middle at-large seeds and why they’re so congested. First, the bracket:
Four, Five, Six Seeds at a Glance
- Alabama is the definitive 4-seed who does not fall into what we’re about to talk about, but there is a logjam in the bottom of the 4’s and top of the 5-line here. BYU, Illinois, and Kentucky sit as the three other 4-seeds, but Auburn is right on all three’s heels. Kentucky’s Quad-3 loss has them ever so close to falling off the 4-line, but their overall strong top part of the résumé (5-6 Q1, 5-2 vs. Q1A) is enough to overcome Auburn’s singular Q1 win. Auburn’s extremely weak Q1 record will continue to go against its other metrics. Despite being sixth in the NET and on KenPom, they overall just don’t have the wins necessary to stack up.
- Spinning off of that, the other three 5-seeds behind Auburn and nearly all of the 6-seeds are neck and neck as well. San Diego State sits as the second-highest 5-seed, but they’re far more likely to drop to a 6-seed than they are to climb back to the 4-line. Nevada made a 3 line jump this week, the biggest we’ve seen in a month, due to a double-digit road win at Boise State and then gaining another Q1 win with UNLV’s massive win over San Diego State, raising their NET within the top 75. Now, UNLV’s ranking could shift as they are the 75th spot in the NET, and falling below that makes it a Q2 win, but this was a huge week for the Wolfpack, who are now 9-1 over their last 10 games after starting 2-4 in MWC play.
↳Gonzaga sits as the last 5-seed, and their rise from bubble to where everyone expected them to be at the beginning of the season has been swift and dominant. They crushed Saint Mary’s on the road last week, but they’re at the mercy of everyone else until later this week when they finally get to play again. Best case scenario for Gonzaga is San Francisco advancing to the semi-finals and beating them for another Q2 win, and then beating Saint Mary’s for the WCC Title for a fourth Q1 win.
↳The difference between Gonzaga, Florida, and Clemson for that last 5-seed is razor thin. Clemson has the best chance to move up above both, at least until Gonzaga plays again, as they get Wake Forest on the road tomorrow in a Q1 game while Florida heads to Nashville to play Vanderbilt. Wisconsin, in terms of pure opportunity, have the best chance, but nobody wins at Purdue.
Seven, Eight, Nine Seeds at a Glance
- Dayton is the final 6-seed, but their margin of error is very small as Texas Tech, Saint Mary’s, Washington State, Utah State, South Carolina, and Texas are narrowly behind them. It is a complete pile-up here. The difference of separation between Dayton (last 6-seed) and Texas (2nd highest 8-seed) is the exact same as the difference between Baylor and Marquette for the final 2-seed. That’s seven teams alive and well for a game against a double-digit seed.
↳With Dayton possibly losing Javon Bennett for the remainder of the season, it could have major seeding implications depending on their performance against VCU on Friday and in the A-10 tournament. One slip up, and they likely drop to the bottom of the 7-line.