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Matt’s Monday Morning Bracketology | January 15

January 15, 2024 by Rocky Top Talk


A lot has changed in a couple weeks

Welcome back, and Happy New Year! With both the new year and some personal things that came up, I took a couple weeks off, but we’re back, feeling good, and wow…college basketball is officially back. Before we get into The Board, let’s look at some big results over the past week that had major seeding impact:

Notable games: 1/9-1/15

January 9

* Iowa State def. Houston 57-53
— The Cyclones knock off the nation’s final unbeaten as Hilton Magic strikes again. Cyclones move up to the top 8-seed from when we last saw them.

* Baylor def. BYU 81-72
— Baylor notches a big Quad 1A win at home over an over-ranked BYU squad at home. Coupled with a close home win against Cincinnati at home, Baylor picked up a pair of wins over current tournament teams.

* Boise State def. Colorado State 65-58
— Boise State picked up a couple big wins this week, most notably against Colorado State at home. The Broncos are now 3-1 in Quad 1 games on the season and leapt 39 spots from 72nd to 33rd in wins above bracket.

* Nebraska def. Purdue 88-72
— The biggest upset in a slew of upsets (17 ranked teams were beat over the course of the week) was the Huskers knocking off the Boilers. While other results from other teams have put Purdue in the number one overall seed, Nebraska has leapt off the bubble for the time being even with the blowout loss at Iowa.

January 10

* Mississippi State def. Tennessee 77-73
— Starkville nearly saw a double digit halftime lead slip through their fingers, but the Bulldogs pulled away at the end, upsetting a Tennessee team that forgot how to play basketball for a half. Despite losing close to Alabama on Saturday, this win has State up in the 8-seed ranks and officially off the bubble as it stands.

* Virginia Tech def. Clemson 87-72
— This was a thorough victory for the Hokies as they controlled nearly from the tip to the final horn. While the loss to Miami on top of losing three of their first four ACC games has seen them drop to the extremes of the bubble, this game could be a pivotal one for their chances.

January 11

* Santa Clara def. Gonzaga 77-76
— For the first time since the first Obama administration, Santa Clara defeated Gonzaga, officially taking Mark Few and co. completely off the bubble as it stands.

January 12

* Boise State def. Nevada 64-56
— The Broncos forced Nevada into a slog, upsetting the Wolfpack in Reno. Again, a major week for Leon Rice and the Broncos.

January 13
* TCU def. Houston 68-67
— TCU might be the only team with a better week than Boise State, and if not for a bad call against Kansas, they’d be 3-0 in Big 12 play with three Quad 1 wins. That being said, wins over OU and Houston aren’t too bad at all. TCU leaps from the depths of the bubble all the way to the second 8-seed.

* St. Thomas def. Oral Roberts 87-76
— The Tommies knocked off preseason Summit League #2 Oral Roberts on the road, cementing themselves as a firm favorite in the Summit this season.

Biggest Risers

Alabama Crimson Tide: +6 | 10-seed to 4-seed

The Tide are off to a good start in ACC play with a dominant 36-point win over bubble team South Carolina at home and 8-point win at Mississippi State. They survived a scare against lowly Vanderbilt, but it was smooth sailing this past week for the nation’s best offense.

Biggest Fallers

Again, this is solely for teams that fell within The Board who are still on The Board.

James Madison: -6 | 6-seed to 12-seed

JMU has dropped two of their last three games in Sun Belt play, one by double digits at Southern Miss, a team ranked 243 on KenPom, and by four at home against Appalachian State. JMU is clinging desperately to that Michigan State win for its résumé right now, and with very few chances to pick up quality wins in the Sun Belt, they’re more than likely to drop to a 13-seed eventually.

Newcomers

TCU: 8-seed
Seton Hall: 11-seed
Cincinnati: 11-seed
Wake Forest: 11-seed
Saint Mary’s: 12-seed (auto-qualifier)

¡Hasta Luego!

NC State, Florida, Virginia, Kansas State, Gonzaga

Bubble Watch

FIRST FOUR BYES

Northwestern (10), Ole Miss (11), South Carolina (11), Seton Hall (11)

LAST FOUR IN

Cincinnati (11), Wake Forest (11), Virginia Tech (12), Miami FL (12)

FIRST FOUR OUT

Oregon, New Mexico, Washington State, Providence

NEXT FOUR OUT

Ohio State, Xavier, Butler, Texas

The Board

Seeding by Conference

Big XII: 9 (1, 2, 2, 6, 7, 8, 8, 10, 11)
SEC: 8 (3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 8, 11, 11)
Big Ten: 7 (1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 10)
ACC: 6 (2, 3, 4, 11, 12)
Big East: 6 (1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 11)
MWC: 5 (5, 5, 5, 9, 10)
PAC-12: 2 (1, 4)
AAC: 2 (6, 7)

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