Let’s sort through this region.
The Tennessee Volunteers landed a No. 2 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament, narrowly missing out on the first No. 1 seed in school history. Tennessee enters the big dance on a bit of a cold snap, dropping games to Kentucky to end the regular season and Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament.
Rick Barnes is now tasked with getting things back on track quickly, with quite literally everything on the line.
Tennessee is paired up with No. 1 seed Purdue in the Midwest, and is looking at a potential meeting the No. 3 seed Creighton. The full Midwest bracket is shown below.
Midwest Region Bracket
Tennessee opened as an 18.5 point favorite over Saint Peters on Sunday. That number has ballooned to 21.5 now, per DraftKings Sportsbook. The Volunteers are +350 to win the entire region and reach the Final Four. They are -210 to advance to the Sweet 16, and +135 to move on to the Elite Eight.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See DraftKings.com/sportsbook for details.
1. Overall, this is a pretty favorable draw for Tennessee
You’ve got to be pretty happy with this draw for Tennessee. Looking past round one, you’ve got a struggling Texas team or a mediocre Virginia/or a Colorado State team that went 5-5 down the stretch of Mountain West play. Tennessee has a really nice path to the Sweet 16, assuming they can bounce back from a dreadful day last Friday in the SEC Tournament against Mississippi State.
Purdue-Creighton-Kansas join Tennessee as the top four seeds in the region, but all face legitimate tests in the first or second round. More on this later, but the chao potential is really high here, with teams like Utah State, Oregon, McNeese State and Samford poised to make some noise.
2. 2024 Saint Peter’s isn’t quite 2022 Saint Peter’s
Your heart probably sank just a little bit as you saw Saint Peter’s name scroll across the screen on Sunday, as memories from that 2022 run flooded back. The Peacocks took down Kentucky and Purdue on their way to the Elite Eight two years ago, before finally losing to North Carolina.
That team entered the tournament ranked 102nd in Kenpom. This year’s team ranks just 187th.
Saint Peter’s finished the season with a 19-13 overall record, finishing third in the MAAC. They played three tight games in the MAAC Tournament, taking down Rider, Quinnipiac and Fairfield on their way to another NCAA Tournament bid. Interestingly enough, Saint Peter’s lost to Quinnipiac and Rider to close the regular season. Regardless, the Peacocks are back dancing.
Bashir Mason took over at head coach after Shaheen Holloway bolted for the Seton Hall job following that 2022 run. Mason went 14-18 last season before adding five games to the win column this year. He’s led a somewhat improbable run to the NCAA Tournament this year, but can he recapture the magic of the program from two years ago?
3. Of course the NCAA sets up a Tennessee-Texas matchup
They swear they don’t, but of course they do. You can’t tell me this isn’t a made for TV matchup, which will likely be played on Saturday evening in primetime. Rick Barnes was dismissed from Texas after a 17-year run in Austin, following a streak of early exits in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee didn’t waste any time, calling on Barnes to bring stability to a program that really needed it at the time.
Tennessee has gotten that stability, and a whole lot more. Meanwhile, Texas has been searching for consistency ever since firing Barnes.
Barnes returned to Austin back in 2022, but Tennessee ended up dropping a tight one. The two schools will be conference opponents next season, and we might just get a little preview of this potential rivalry on Saturday.
4. Can Purdue or Tennessee change the narrative?
Tennessee and Purdue — two teams that everyone loves to dunk on this time of year — are paired together here with a really good chance to turn around their tournament fortunes. As Mike Rutherford pointed out earlier this week, it feels like the committee actively tried to let one of these teams shed the March narrative.
Purdue has had their heart shattered in recent years, losing matchups to No. 13, No. 15 and (of course) No. 16 seeds. All of this happening despite having 7-foot-4 monster Zach Edey in the post.
Tennessee hasn’t had the embarrassing losses that Purdue has had, but the Volunteers have largely underperformed under Rick Barnes in March, continuing the tournament narrative that has surrounded him since his days at Texas. Sister Jean, the Carsen Edwards foul, the Michigan upset, Cinderella FAU — Tennessee just can’t seem to get over the hump.
Could these two teams be on a collision course? Based on recent history, I wouldn’t bet on it. All things considered though, the Boilermakers have a pretty breezy path to the Elite Eight. Tennessee would likely have to get past Creighton.
Personally, I wouldn’t want to face Edey and his friendly whistles. But at the same time, payback for 2019 would be a fun story.
Purdue is +165 to win the Midwest, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
5. (3) Creighton is a legitimate threat, but (4) Kansas, (5) Gonzaga and (6) South Carolina? Eh.
Outside of Purdue and Tennessee, where’s the strength in this Region? Creighton and their big-time offense is the answer. The Bluejays rank 12th in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom, averaging over 80 points per game.
Beyond that, there’s not a lot to be afraid of. Kansas is not the Kansas that we usually see, and they’re dealing with some big injuries to Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar on top of that. It wasn’t that long ago that Gonzaga was legitimately on the bubble, either. South Carolina has been up and down during the stretch run, while Texas isn’t scaring anyone.
Which leads us to this point….
6. The Midwest has big time chaos potential
- It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see (10) Colorado State or Virginia take out Texas.
- (11) Oregon just ran through the Pac-12 Tournament, knocking off Arizona.
- (12) McNeese State and Will Wade just put the finishing touches on a 30-3 season.
- (13) Samford just ran through the SoCon and draws a struggling Kansas team.
- (8) Utah State is ranked 20th in the latest AP poll and could give Purdue issues in the second round.
Would it surprise anyone if a double-digit seed advanced to the Elite Eight here? It shouldn’t. This region has all the makings of a wild one.
All the fun gets started tonight with the Virginia-Colorado State play-in game. Tennessee will open the NCAA Tournament on Thursday at 9:20 p.m. ET against Saint Peter’s.