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Monday Morning Bracketology — Bid Stealers Everywhere

February 23, 2024 by Rocky Top Talk


Little movements happen, but the ones that did are important

Friday’s weekly bracket update comes with very little movement across the top 16 seeds, but the movement we see may set the tone for what’s to come on Selection Sunday. Here’s the bracket:


Bubble Talk: Bid Stealers highlight Friday bracket

Enter South Florida and Richmond, who currently lead the American and A-10 respectively, and gone are Texas A&M and Virginia. With USF and Richmond, who otherwise wouldn’t be in the bracket, leading their conferences, making both the American and A-10 two-bid leagues, it bumped Indiana State and Grand Canyon up to the 11-seed line, effectively moving the Aggies and Cavaliers off the ‘Last Four In’ to ‘First Four Out’.

Last Four In

  • Gonzaga, South Carolina, Wake Forest, Utah

Here’s another cascading effect of the two bid stealers: Gonzaga and Wake Forest have gone from the good side of the bubble to firmly Last Four In until further notice.

First Four Out

  • Texas A&M, Virginia, Cincinnati, Seton Hall

— A&M has had a whirlwind of a season. They’re 6-5 in Quad 1 games, which should normally be good enough to elevate a bubble team above the rest, but their four Quad 3 losses, three of which have come at home, knock them out of the bracket as of now.
— Virginia’s 34 point loss at Virginia Tech moved the Cavaliers from 10-seed to out of the bracket.

Movement Among Top 16

— Arizona’s narrow loss last night to Washington State did more for the Cougars than it did against Tommy Lloyd’s squad. The top four are pretty solid right now, and it would take another loss from the Wildcats to get them off their perch.

— Alabama moves up to the final two-seed, but it is neck and neck between them and Iowa State right now. The NET and overall metrics slightly favor ‘Bama while résumé metrics side with the Cyclones.

— BYU moves up from top 6-seed to last 4-seed following their big win over Baylor on Tuesday night.

— Duke moves up a seed line to the final 3-seed with their dominant win at Miami coupled with Baylor’s loss at BYU.

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