With over 20 teams all but locking up at-large bids, the spots remaining for teams on the bubble are narrowing
Welcome back to the bracket!
After this weekend, there are now just 18 seed lines for 20 teams to fill with Kentucky locking themselves into the field after their dominant win over Alabama. First, let’s look at the bracket, and then we will look at the bubble and teams with realistic shots to get in.
All teams highlighted in yellow are ‘locks’ for the tournament. Half-filled in triangles indicate movement across one seed line while filled in triangles indicate movement across multiple seed lines.
The Bracket
Breaking Down the Bubble
As it stands right now, the Last Four In the tournament are New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Seton Hall, and Villanova. The First Four Out right now are Colorado, Virginia, Utah, and St. John’s with the Next Four Out being James Madison, Pittsburgh, Princeton, and Drake.
Last Four In
NEW MEXICO LOBOS
21-7 | NET: 26 | SOR: 56th | WAB: 43rd | Q1A: 0-3 | Q1-2: 5-5 | Q3-4: 15-2
— New Mexico’s loss at home to Air Force serves as a Quad-4 loss in the worst of times for the Lobos’ at-large chances. From comfortably on the correct side of the bubble as a 9-seed on Friday, they are now in a play-in game in Dayton. Despite four Q1 wins and an overall record of 5-5 across Q1 and Q2, it’s the home losses at The Pit to UNLV and Air Force that make it tough for a Mountain West team to get on the right side. With two Q1 road games to go against Boise State and Utah State, the Lobos need to handle business at home against Fresno State and win one of those two games to sit in a better spot.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS
21-7 | NET: 37 | SOR: 39th | WAB: 40th | Q1A: 0-3 | Q1-2: 7-5 | Q3-4: 14-2
— Florida Atlantic is being used as the stepping stone of proof that the American is a damn good conference. With South Florida currently leading the AAC, FAU, having now lost two of their last three and three of their last six, have two Quad 4 losses and are clinging onto their strong non-conference wins over Butler, Texas A&M, and Virginia Tech on neutral sites and especially their win over Arizona. The path forward for the Owls is simple: don’t lose. Beat Tulane and Memphis at home and pluck off a tough North Texas team in one of America’s toughest road venues, and you’re in.
SETON HALL PIRATES
18-9 | NET: 61 | SOR: 35th | WAB: 44th | Q1A: 2-4 | Q1-2: 8-7 | Q3-4: 10-2
— Seton Hall and Texas A&M are two teams with 8+ Q1/Q2 wins with an overall record at or above .500 over the top two quadrants who are clinging onto the bubble. The reason being both have bad Quad 3 losses. Seton Hall is in better shape than the Aggies, but they dropped a pair of games to teams who have cratered their résumé since early December. They fell to USC back when everyone thought the Trojans would be good, and then they fell to Rutgers at home. The path for the Pirates is not easy over the final two weeks. With road games at Creighton and UConn, a win in one of those, while unlikely, coupled with two home wins over Villanova and DePaul should ensure Seton Hall a spot in the dance.
VILLANOVA WILDCATS
15-12 NET: 38 | SOR: 61st | WAB: 67th | Q1A: 2-4 | Q1-2: 9-9 | Q3-4: 6-3
— Villanova’s wins are fantastic. On neutral floors versus Texas Tech and North Carolina, at Creighton, a place where UConn lost by 20; on top of that, they’re 6-1 in Quad 2 games. This résumé is that of a much higher seed under normal circumstances. ‘Nova’s not normal, however. Losses to Penn, Drexel, and inexplicably at home to Saint Joseph’s by double digits on top of eight Quad 1 losses is enough to bottom out the Wildcats. Villanova has to take both home games remaining over Georgetown and Creighton and pick up at least one of their two remaining road games over Providence and Seton Hall to ensure a high percentage chance at hearing their name called on Selection Sunday.
First Four Out
COLORADO BUFFALOES
18-9 | NET: 34 | SOR: 53rd | WAB: 54th | Q1A: 0-4 | Q1-2: 8-9 | Q3-4: 10-0
— Colorado’s biggest fault is being in the PAC-12. With Quad 1 games being few and far between, the Buffs have only been able to win one of them, at Washington, and even that win is directly on the line of being a Q2 win. There isn’t really a blemish on Colorado’s résumé, but they have to win out over their final four games just to cling onto an at-large shot because they’re doing a lot more cheerleading than the usual team has to just to get their résumé up to snuff with those teams above them.
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
20-8 | NET: 49 | SOR: 34th | WAB: 39th | Q1A: 1-3 | Q1-2: 6-7 | Q3-4: 14-1
— Virginia basketball in 2024 is an interesting case study on how to torture a basketball fan for two hours. Among the worst offenses of any power conference team who plays at the slowest pace in the nation, their style of play has not lent itself to the wins necessary to make the tournament, and with a date with Duke at Cameron Indoor looming on March 2nd, it’ll be Virginia’s final shot at cracking the field of 68.
UTAH UTES
16-11 | NET: 54 | SOR: 57th | WAB: 58th | Q1A: 3-5 | Q1-2: 8-10 | Q3-4: 8-1
— From 11-2 to 16-11, Utah’s collapse has seen them fall from a 4-seed in early bracketology all the way to out of the field altogether. They’ve lost six of their last eight and are 1-6 on the road in PAC-12 play. With just four games left, they have one shot at bolstering their résumé, and that’s at Oregon in the season finale. Needless to say, they have to win out.
ST. JOHN’S RED STORM
16-12 | NET: 44 | SOR: 53rd | WAB: 58th | Q1A: 2-6 | Q1-2: 8-11 | Q3-4: 8-1
— With just three games left to play, the Johnnies must win out. With DePaul and Georgetown remaining after their final Q1 game at Butler, they have a great chance to do so, and they have to do it emphatically.
Next Four Out
JAMES MADISON DUKES
26-3 | NET: 50 | SOR: 40th | WAB: 37th | Q1A: 1-0 | Q1-2: 2-2 | Q3-4: 23-1
— Imagine if Michigan State had actually been the top 10 team they were predicted to be in preseason? James Madison’s win in East Lansing would be carrying a lot more weight than the ton-sized catalyst it already serves as for the Dukes’ at-large résumé. The Dukes right now sit in second in the Sun Belt behind an Appalachian State team that’s responsible for two of JMU’s three losses which is why they’re not seen in the field. I don’t really see a path forward for the Dukes as an at-large team.
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
18-9 | NET: 47 | SOR: 60th | WAB: 64th | Q1A: 1-3 | Q1-2: 5-7 | Q3-4: 13-2
— Pitt’s résumé is pretty hilarious. They got two close wins over Duke at Cameron Indoor and Wake Forest at home while getting demolished in their other meetings with the two teams. Pitt has road wins over Virginia and NC State, but their poor non-conference schedule (331st non-con SOS) makes this a much harder obstacle than it needs to be. Pitt has one final Q1 opportunity at Clemson tomorrow.
PRINCETON TIGERS
21-3 | NET: 51 | SOR: 32nd | WAB: 32nd | Q1A: 0-0 | Q1-2: 3-3 | Q3-4: 16-0
— Princeton, like James Madison, is here despite not even being their conference’s auto-bid in the above bracket. Princeton holds a win over Rutgers and at home against Yale, but outside of that, that’s pretty much it. It’s a perfectly inoffensive résumé with no real blemishes. That being said, there isn’t really a path forward as an at-large either.
DRAKE BULLDOGS
23-6 | NET: 46 | SOR: 67th | WAB: 52nd | Q1A: 0-1 | Q2-3: 5-4 | Q3-4: 17-2
— Similar to Princeton, because of the nature of their résumé, there isn’t a path forward for Drake as an at-large team, and that’s largely because of their loss at Northern Iowa by 14 on the road this past Saturday.
Others with a chance
TEXAS A&M AGGIES
— A&M has dropped four in a row since their home win against Tennessee, including a pair of Q3 losses at Vanderbilt and at home against Arkansas as well as blowouts at Alabama and Tennessee. Their four Q3 losses, despite wins over Kentucky, Florida, and the Vols at home, keep them on the outside looking in.
CINCINNATI BEARCATS
— Big XII play has not been kind to the first-year Bearcats. The conference is such a gauntlet that it’s bound to swallow a few teams up, and Cincinnati is definitely one of them. The good news for them, however, is what lays ahead. They hit the road with two Q1 chances to face Houston, a team who never loses at home, and Oklahoma and get home games against Kansas State and West Virginia.
BUTLER BULLDOGS
— Butler has lost four straight in what’s proven to be the dog days of February. With no Q1 chances in front of them, Butler has to win out and pull out at least two wins in the Big East tournament.
IOWA HAWKEYES
— Iowa middles around the middle of the Big Ten standings, but their wins have been very good lately. They pulled out an OT win at home against Wisconsin and at Michigan State. This goes with a home win over Nebraska and a neutral win over Seton Hall despite an otherwise weak non-con schedule. After getting a chance to avenge a loss to Penn State, Iowa finishes up with two Q1 games: at Northwestern and at home against Illinois, a team they just took to the wire on Saturday on the road. Running a brief simulation on barttorvik.com, if Iowa wins out and can avoid a bad loss in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, they may backdoor their way in as a tournament team after all.