We’re almost there. Tennessee will be in Columbus this weekend to take on Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The Volunteers are 7.5 point underdogs and most have written off the possibility of Tennessee advancing out of the first round.
So what needs to happen for the Vols to shock the world? Our staff weighed in below. Here are each of our top keys to a Tennessee victory this weekend.
Lambert: Start fast, play downhill
Maybe outside of the Georgia game, Tennessee has been a notoriously slow starter all season long. The Volunteers were forced to dig out of holes against Vanderbilt, Florida and Kentucky, while they seemed to sleepwalk on the offensive side of the ball to open against both Arkansas and Alabama. That can’t happen on Saturday in Columbus.
There’s an interesting situation brewing up there right now as frustrations are at a simmer with head coach Ryan Day after yet another loss to Michigan. This time, a very mediocre Michigan team at that. An Ohio State loss here would be ugly for him, and everyone knows it. Tennessee jumping out to an early lead would have Buckeye fans on edge, and that stadium could get fairly hostile towards the head coach. All of that could play into the hands of Tennessee, which certainly would love to put the game on the shoulders of Dylan Sampson.
A quick start would go a long way towards settling in young quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be playing on by far the biggest stage of his career. Not to mention by far the coldest game of his career.
Tennessee can do exactly what Michigan did a couple of weeks ago — get a lead, run the ball, then force Will Howard to beat you.
Smith: Stay on schedule on offense
I think Tennessee’s defense is going to keep the Vols in the game and give them a chance to win. Ohio State’s offensive line is banged up and vulnerable, which plays right into the strength of this Tennessee team.
The question is: can Tennessee get enough on the scoreboard to make it count against a very good Ohio State defense? Staying on course on offense is going to be crucial. That means avoiding stupid 5-yard procedure penalties and negative plays. Nico has to be smart, and I’d like to see him take off and run more. I feel like good things have happened when he’s done that.
Seese: Third down success
If Tennessee wants to beat Ohio State, they have to effectively throw on third downs. Ohio State is the best defense Tennessee will play this year, hands down, but they’re susceptible to the run at times. Being able to get into 3rd and manageable downs will help take some pressure off of Nico and this receiving corps and make moving the ball feel a little bit easier.
Defensively, I think the key is two turnovers. Will Howard has played mostly well this season, but in big games, he’s been prone to throwing you one on top of fumble issues. Pressure Howard, make him beat you, and he’s bound to do the opposite.
Sexton: Hit the deep ball — at least a few times
Ohio State ranks in the top 10 in both run and pass defense. Tennessee has to expect a loaded box on Saturday night given Nico’s shaky deep balls this year. If he could just hit a few, that would keep the defense on its heels and naturally open up the box a little bit to allow Sampson to get loose.
But if the Vols become one-dimensional on offense, scoring will become much harder. It’s interesting that Michigan did not pass the ball well versus the Buckeyes but managed to come away with the win (62 passing yards, 172 rushing yards). Can Tennessee replicate that?