Can the Volunteers pull off the upset?
Gameday is just about here. Tennessee and Ohio State are set for battle in Columbus with the season on the line. The winner will stay alive for a national title, advancing to the Rose Bowl to face No. 1 Oregon.
Ohio State opened as a 7.5 point favorite and they’ve remained there since the game was announced. The Buckeyes struggles with the SEC have been well-documented, but they also haven’t hosted an SEC opponent at home since 1988.
Can the Volunteers get the job done? Our picks are below.
Terry Lambert: Tennessee 20, Ohio State 16
Pundit after pundit has fallen all over themselves talking about Ohio State’s talent. Did we just forget about what happened when they faced a bad Michigan team at home? Rivalry game, sure, but Tennessee is coming to town with a very similar physical brand, along with a better offense than the Wolverines.
Ohio State had 26 carries for 77 yards against Michigan. Against Nebraska, the Buckeyes ran for 64 yards on 31 carries. Both games were played in Columbus, and Tennessee can absolutely replicate those numbers with their elite defensive front. Toss in Dylan Sampson and Tennessee’s run game on the other side of the ball and you have the makings of a (mild) upset.
Nico Iamaleava has quietly turned a corner in the second half of the season. Will Howard has been prone to mistakes, tossing three picks in the last two games. All the pressure is on Ryan Day in this spot — I think he cracks.
Craig Smith: Ohio State 17, Tennessee 13
I really believe Tennessee CAN win this game. This is a game that will likely be a rock fight for four quarters with a lot of punts, and Tennessee’s defense will keep them right there. I think the Vols are going to find it tough to run the ball, and the passing attack goes — pardon the pun — cold. A disheartening result, because it’s one that’s right there for the taking. I just don’t trust this Tennessee team when they don’t reach 20 points. That’s been the benchmark for success and failure for this team, it feels like.
Connor Sexton: Tennessee 23, Ohio State 21
Tennessee is finally in the CFP; albeit a new format. This season went about as I expected it to.
There’s a lot of talk surrounding this game. Talk of Tennessee not being able to handle the cold, talk of a Vol nation takeover, amongst other narratives.
Ohio State has an extremely talented roster. Some say it’s the best in the country. How will their tight end and receiver core stack up against Tennessee’s defense? Ohio State is first in the nation in points allowed per possession (0.92) and Tennessee is right behind them at third (1.01).
Though Nico’s deep throw percentages have me worried, I’m confident Tennessee can take advantage of the line of scrimmage via Dylan Sampson. Take advantage of the weaker cornerback unit, one of which has 11 Pl calls this year. Will Howard must not have time to throw like Carson Beck did, or Tennessee will have a hard time winning this one.
All things considered, I’m surprised the line is at 7.5, I was expecting much lower. I see a close game either way. I predict a Max Gilbert field goal in the closing minutes helps Tennessee win its first ever playoff game. Give me the Volunteers by a whisker.
Matthew Seese: Ohio State 21, Tennessee 13
I’ve bounced back and forth on this game all week. I’ve got skin in the game on both sides as a northeast Ohio-born and raised Buckeye. I ultimately think Ohio State’s defense gets this one done. It’s funny, if you asked me about this matchup, say, two years ago, the scores would’ve been triple this, but that’s just not how these two teams are anymore.
I ultimately think the Vols struggle to run the ball, and it gets Nico into trouble which creates short drives. The Vols defense will be key here, most notably the secondary. Ryan Day doesn’t feel pressure to show how tough he is in this game, and they’ll actually use the best college receiver in the nation, and I ultimately think that squeaks them by.