Let’s set the stage.
The stage is set. Tennessee will hit the road for the first round of the College Football Playoff, heading north to face the Ohio State Buckeyes. The two teams received the No. 6 and No. 7 rankings from the CFP committee, placing them as the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds in the bracket.
The winner will move on to Pasadena to face Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Tennessee and Ohio State — two of college football’s biggest brands — have met exactly one time. The Volunteers beat the Buckeyes in the 1996 Citrus Bowl. Tennessee has never played a game inside the state of Ohio.
The unfamiliarity here certainly makes it more intriguing, and we aren’t short on storylines to get things going.
Ryan Day is feeling the pressure
Ohio State is coming off of a loss at home to an incredibly mediocre Michigan squad. The Buckeyes managed just ten points against their bitter rival, once again turning up the flame on Ryan Day’s seat in Columbus. Getting bounced out of the playoffs in the first round might make things interesting.
From a Tennessee perspective, its funny to think about firing someone with a record like Day had. Day, who was handed the keys to the car after Urban Meyer left, holds a 66-10 record since taking over. Yet the narrative that he can’t win the big one, or more importantly, he can’t beat Michigan, could do him in.
It’s mighty restless in Columbus. We even heard some boos on their home field as Ohio State let another slip away to the Wolverines. What happens if Tennessee gets off to a fast start on December 21st? The pressure to perform is very real for Day, especially with the famed ‘20 million dollar roster.’
Ohio State vs. the SEC
It’s been well documented. Ohio State struggles against teams from the Southeastern Conference. The Buckeyes are 2-13 all time in bowl games against the SEC. There’s another narrative Ryan Day is going to have to beat — no pressure!
Two of the best defenses in the country
- Ohio State defense: No. 1 overall (241 yards allowed per game)
- Tennessee defense: No. 4 overall (278 yards allowed per game)
These are two of the best defensive units in all of college football, playing in late December in Ohio. The potential is there for this one to turn into a rock fight, which is a game that Tennessee has proven that they can win. Both sides will have to deal with truly elite defensive fronts.
Ohio State has Jack Sawyer, Tyleik Willliams and JT Tuimoloau leading the way up front. The Buckeyes have the No. 7 run defense in the nation, giving up 96.8 yards per contest.
Tennessee, which leans on a 10+ man rotation to stay fresh, ranks eighth in the nation. The Volunteers give up 99 yards per game on the ground.
Where the Buckeyes may hold an advantage is in the defensive backfield, which is a truly elite group. Alabama transfer Caleb Downs was one of the biggest pulls out of the transfer portal last season. He joins Lathan Ransom, along with Denzel Burke. Ohio State has the second-ranked unit against the pass nationally, giving up 144 yards per game.
One weakness to note — cornerback Davison Igbinosun is one of the most flagged players in all of college football. He’s had 18 penalties called on him over the past two seasons.
Nico Iamaleava on the road, in the cold
Much is being made about Tennessee going up north for this game, despite it being plenty cold in Knoxville every single winter. However, the cold will be new for redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava, who comes from California.
Iamaleava played his first true cold game in Nashville against Vanderbilt, where temperatures were around 30 degrees. It was arguably his best game of the season, too.
“Yeah, not sure what the temperature will be up there at night,” Josh Heupel said of going to Columbus. “Know it won’t be sunny and 85. We played in 30 degree weather a week ago. For us, a lot of our practices are in the morning. We’re outside. It’ll be similar temperatures to what you’re going to get up there. Our guys got to be able to handle anything that comes at them. That’s weather, it’s outside distractions. It’s us getting ready to go be our best 11 on 11 between the white lines. And we’ll be ready to handle that and and operate at a high level.”
My take? This narrative is way overblown.
Josh Heupel’s road record
Here’s a narrative that is very much alive and well. Heupel’s home/road splits have been a topic of discussion for a couple of years now. He’s 37-14 overall since taking the Tennessee job, but just 8-9 in true road games. We’ve seen several examples of the Volunteers coming out flat and spiraling on the road — ‘22 South Carolina, ‘23 Florida, ‘23 Missouri and ‘24 Arkansas come to mind.
Tennessee has had some decent performances on the road this season. Heupel returned to Oklahoma and picked up a win over his old school early in the year. Tennessee looked sharp early on against Georgia before some, uhh, questionable calls shifted the game in the second half. It doesn’t really count, but the Volunteers also dug out of a big early hole against Vanderbilt.
Still, the numbers are clear. Tennessee has scored 14, 25, 17 and 36 points in road games this season. Last season it was 16, 20, 33 and 7. The home/road splits are very real, and Heupel’s offense is going to have a tough task with the nation’s top defense on the other side of the line of scrimmage.
Kickoff is set for Saturday, December 21st at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.