They’re in a much better spot now.
After finding a major speedbump in Fayetteville, Tennessee knew what they had to do. Their mulligan had been used and the only path forward was to find a win over Alabama or Georgia.
They did just that on Saturday night.
Nico Iamaleava finally hit a big throw down the field to Dont’e Thornton, which seemed to turn the entire game around. It very well could have turned the season around, too. Iamaleava came back to deliver the go-ahead touchdown pass to Chris Brazzell, then the Tennessee defense did the rest.
Jalen Milroe tossed another interception to end it, and now Alabama is staring at must-win games for the rest of the year. That begins this week against Missouri and continues on October 9th at LSU.
A Tennessee loss on Saturday would have put them in a similar spot. The Vols will be favored in every game left on their schedule, outside of that road game at Georgia. However, that game is no longer a must win.
Using ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor, Tennessee would have an 80 percent chance at making the playoff field with a 10-2 record, assuming that they lose to Georgia. The predictor gives Tennessee a 25 percent chance to host a first round matchup. Obviously this assumes that Tennessee handles business against Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP and Vanderbilt.
A win against Georgia moves Tennessee’s playoff chances all the way out to 99 percent. That result would give the Vols a great shot (it’s very complicated now with 16 teams and no divisions) at appearing in the SEC Championship game, which obviously would have them in the running for a first-round bye and a top four seed. ESPN’s Football Power Index now gives the Volunteers a 17 percent chance to take home the conference title.
Looking at the gambling markets, Tennessee is now -150 to make the College Football Playoff, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Vols currently have the ninth best odds to make the field. Tennessee is +1000 to win the SEC title.
Tennessee does get Mississippi State and Kentucky at home. The Bulldogs have been quietly improving as the season progresses, getting more comfortable under Josh Heupel disciple Jeff Lebby. Mississippi State has given trouble to both Georgia and Texas A&M in the last two weeks.
From there, your toughest test left is Vanderbilt, who will get Tennessee in Nashville. We know that’s not exactly a true home-field advantage for the ‘Dores, but it’s not Neyland either. Vandy has been an absolute rollercoaster this season, playing up and down to their level of competition. They did it again this weekend with Ball State. Based on that trajectory, Tennessee can expect a fight and better be focused during the last week of the season.
The bottomline is this — win the games you’re supposed to win and it’s going to be mighty hard to keep 10-2 Tennessee out of the CFP field. The way this season is shaping up, that might even be enough to host a first round game.