Week Eight College Football Top 25 and CFP Bracketology

A once dominant #1 falls, idle Buckeyes move into top spot

Since we last talked, the current clear-cut numbers one and two have both dropped games to high-caliber opponents. Ohio State’s final minute meltdown saw them snatch defeat out of the jaws of sure victory, and Texas found themselves a recipient of a “Welcome to the SEC” beatdown at the hands of Kirby Smart and Georgia.

First, let’s look at the top 25:

Now, I get it. How is Ohio State #1? after the loss to Oregon and a bye week? The answer is simple: they were far and away the number two team in the nation. After Alabama fell to Vanderbilt, the gap between Texas and Ohio State in overall score grew, and Ohio State and the next closest were more than enough to survive a close loss for both the Buckeyes and Longhorns. With Texas, their dominant win against Oklahoma not only netted them a great game score, but it bolstered their defensive metrics to where even after the loss to Georgia, they sit at #1 in yards per play against, #4 in defensive EPA per play, and #9 success rate allowed. The only other team that’s top 10 in all three categories is Ole Miss.

As for the Buckeyes, they are 3rd in EPA per play offensively, 4th in success rate, 2nd in defensive EPA per play, 1st in NET yards per play, and 4th in NET success rate. Oregon’s movement of five spots from 8th to 3rd since the Ohio State win is the biggest jump within the top 10 this season.

Since those Texas and Ohio State losses to Georgia at home and at Oregon respectively, the gap between 1 through 6 (Ohio State to Penn State) is now as thin as it’s ever been in the regular season in the three seasons I’ve been doing this. It’s important to remember the main factors here: Game score, first and foremost matters most within the formula. Every game matters. From there, however, it’s EPA per play, NET yards per play, and NET success rate in the equation as well with an overarching strength of record tied in.

BIGGEST RISER: OREGON DUCKS

Since we last saw Oregon on the list, they sat at eight. Since then, they rattled off a one-point win against Ohio State in Eugene and shut out Purdue on the road. With a home game against Illinois (28) up next followed by a date in the Big House the week after, this is a Ducks team that has potential to crack the top two.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF: AT A GLANCE

CURRENT BRACKET

That’s right. All alone atop the SEC is 4-0 Texas A&M. With tiebreakers, BYU also edges out Iowa State, making them the Big XII’s only representative.

BUBBLE WATCH

Non-Power Conference Auto-Bid Tracker & Top 10

We touched on it last time, and lo and behold, the Army Black Knights are both ranked in the AP Poll, ranked here, and are the best non-power conference team in the nation as it stands. The Knights will have a bye week before hosting a struggling Air Force team to open November. Thus far, Army hasn’t won a game by fewer than 17 points, and their offense is number two in the nation in success rate with a 57.9% mark and hasn’t posted a game with fewer than 288 yards rushing. Nipping at their heels, however, are Boise State and Heisman front-runner Ashton Jeanty, and armed forces rival Navy. It’s a great time to be running the damn ball.