Seems like we’re down to a couple of different scenarios.
Tennessee won’t be in action this weekend, missing out on the SEC Championship Game with a late-season loss to Georgia. However, there’s still plenty of interest — more than usual (obviously) with just a handful of game to settle the College Football Playoff bracket.
The Volunteers are locks to make the inaugural 12-team field, moving up to No. 7 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings this week. That number placed Tennessee as the No. 9 seed, sliding in just behind Ohio State. Both the AP poll and the Coaches Poll disagreed with the rankings, placing Tennessee ahead of Ohio State. But the committee, which has been accused of Big Ten bias all season long, still set up the Buckeyes to host.
The current projected bracket would have Tennessee taking a trip to Columbus to face Ohio State in the first round.
“Listen, we control what we control,” Josh Heupel said of the possibility of playing on the road. “We don’t have a game before the final rankings come out. There’s a lot of football to be played yet. But if you’re not of the mindset going into this thing, anyone, anywhere, anytime, then you’re just there to have a cup of coffee anyway. So, this is a highly-competitive group. We’ll play where we play. We’ll play who we play. Let’s go put the ball down.”
But could that destination change? A couple of results could slightly shift the bracket. While hosting might not totally be off the table, it does feel like Tennessee will have to hit the road for their first round game.
Will the committee punish a conference championship loser?
This has been a hot topic in recent weeks, and understandably so. What’s the point in playing a conference title game if the risk is falling out of the CFP field? That juice isn’t worth the squeeze, and the committee is likely feeling pressure to keep a level of importance on these games.
SMU could be the test case here. The Mustangs go to Charlotte to face Clemson, who could steal a bid if things fall right. Say Clemson wins convincingly. Does SMU fall beyond Alabama and out of the field? That decision would be one that’s talked about for years to come.
Other games have consequences, too.
(3) Penn State vs. (1) Oregon
Both are locks here, but consider Penn State’s weak resume. Their best win comes against Illinois. They have a “good loss” to Ohio State. They almost lost to Minnesota two weeks ago.
Now, say they lose by two or three scores to Oregon. How far do they tumble? Remember, that head to head over Ohio State is still going to matter. It’s very possible that the Nittany Lions could move to the No. 8 seed and host Tennessee, even though there’s a case to be made that the Volunteers have stronger wins.
(2) Texas vs. (5) Georgia
Georgia sits just two spots ahead of Tennessee. The Bulldogs handled the Volunteers just three weeks ago in Athens. If Texas wins, how far will Georgia drop? Just a guess, but probably not behind Tennessee after a very recent head to head. But if Texas hammered Georgia….? Well, maybe. Doubtful, but maybe.
What if Georgia dominates and beats Texas again? That leaves the Longhorns with a pretty empty resume, but they’re a long way up there at No. 2 to start the weekend. It’s probably unrealistic to think Tennessee could jump Texas.
What Tennessee needs
Oregon blowing out Penn State.
Texas blowing out Georgia.
Most likely outcomes
- Tennessee at Penn State
- Tennessee at Ohio State
The final bracket will be announced on Sunday at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.