Can Rick Barnes get Tennessee over the hump?
The Sweet Sixteen is here, and the Tennessee Volunteers are still dancing. Tennessee will be searching for their second Elite Eight appearance in school history, and then if all goes to plan, their first Final Four appearance.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Volunteers are +230 to win the Midwest Region and make the Final Four. Beyond that, Tennessee is +500 to advance to the National Championship. The Vols are +1300 to win it all.
Can they finally get over the hump and make the Final Four though? It would mean quite a bit for the legacy of Rick Barnes, along with the entire Tennessee basketball program.
Here I’ll make a case for Tennessee, along with a case against.
Tennessee will make the Final Four because of Dalton Knecht and elite defense
This team is different.
We’ve all said that phrase a time or three this season, and there’s one reason why. Tennessee finally has an alpha scorer that is fully capable of taking over a game and willing the team to victory. Dalton Knecht has been a complete gem out of the transfer portal, capitalizing on his one season on Rocky Top.
Knecht averaged over 21 points per game this season on his way to being named the SEC’s Player of the Year. So many times that Tennessee was in trouble, the plan became to just give it to No. 3 and get out of the way. And for the most part, that worked. And in the NCAA Tournament, you need a guy that can just go get you a bucket. Rick Barnes really hasn’t had anyone of this caliber since the days of Kevin Durant at Texas.
Pair that up with a guy like Zakai Zeigler that can create opportunities for his teammate, and that’s a pretty dangerous combination when it’s all working.
Make no mistake though, this program is built on defense. If you’re not going to defend, you’re not going to play for Barnes. Year after year, Tennessee ranks among the nation’s best on that end of the floor. They’re tough, in-your-face and physical in the paint, really making things tough on opposing offenses when they’re really locked in.
Zeigler is the leader of that attack, despite standing in at 5-foot-9. Fresh off of being named the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year, Zeigler really put the clamps down on Texas over the weekend.
“The head of the snake is the little dude,” Texas head coach Rodney Terry said of Zeigler. “The little dude causes a lot of problems out there. He’s all over the place defensively. He’s Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC. He’s causing all kind of havoc on that end of the floor.”
Joining Zeigler on the attack is 7-footer Jonas Aidoo, who averages two blocks per game. Tennessee can also throw a trio of Josiah-Jordan James, Santiago Vescovi and Jahmai Mashack at you — each one a veteran of the system that can drive opponents nuts with relentless man pressure.
Per KenPom, Tennessee defensive efficiency ranks third in the nation. They trail only Iowa State and Houston in that category. That’s a nice place to be considering the prospects of facing three (Creighton, Gonzaga, Purdue) top 11 rated offenses on their way to a potential Final Four.
Should Tennessee get past Creighton on Friday, they’ve already proven that they can hang with Zach Edey and Purdue. The Volunteers lost by four in a game that could have gone either way earlier this season in the Maui Invitational. The difference in that game turned out to be a whopping +17 in the free throw attempt column for the Boilermakers.
Purdue has quite the test coming in the form of a hot Gonzaga team on Friday, too.
This Tennessee team is full of veterans who have been there and done that. The core of this roster has been here for three years or more. They have an elite defense and an elite offensive threat. It’s just about putting all the pieces together at the right time.
Tennessee will fall short of the Final Four due to offensive droughts, cold shooting
It happened again against Texas — Tennessee flat out couldn’t make a jumpshot. The Volunteers shot 3-25 from deep on the night and sat just 1-21 late into the second half of the game. Knecht kept firing, Zeigler kept firing — Vescovi, James, Gainey? Nothing.
It very much felt like Tennessee’s second round exit two years ago against Michigan, where Tennessee shot 2-18 from three-point range. The Vols shot 41 percent from the field on that day and couldn’t match the production that the Wolverines got down low from Hunter Dickinson.
Coming down the stretch, those two situations felt pretty similar. The difference was that Texas failed to take advantage in the first half, and couldn’t make up the difference late.
This isn’t anything new, either. Tennessee shot 8-33 from three against Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament while hitting just 30 percent of their shots from the floor. For whatever reason, these offensive droughts have been a thing for this program for a few years now.
And now things really get real. Plain and simple, Tennessee can’t afford another shooting night like that going forward. The Volunteers will have to keep pace with Creighton’s elite offense, then face a surging team either way in the form of Gonzaga or Purdue.
We’ve all said this team is different, and that’s true simply because of the things Knecht can get done on the offensive end. However, there are moments where Knecht’s shots aren’t falling. That’s where you need a Vescovi, James, Gainey or Zeigler to step up. On Saturday night, that didn’t happen.
On paper coming into the year, pairing a Knecht with Vescovi/James seemed really exciting. But far too often, those two have taken a backseat offensively. In fact, Vescovi is shooting at his worst three-point percent of his career this season — 32 percent, which is down from the 37 and 40 percent from his previous two years. James is down to scoring just eight points per game, which is down from his ten last season.
Both of these veterans make winning plays that you probably don’t notice, but their lack of offensive consistency has been a big blow to Tennessee at times this season. At this point, it’s difficult to see that changing.
That puts a ton of pressure on Knecht, who is fully capable, but is also going to get plenty of attention from opposing defensive schemes. Odds are, Tennessee is going to need someone else to step up this weekend. Will they get that performance? It’s hard to feel too confident in that idea.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See DraftKings.com/sportsbook for details.