The thrilling chase for the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft comes down to the wire as the league approaches the final countdown in Week 18. After multiple weeks of paring down the competition for the “lackluster” prize, only five teams remain in the hunt. Much like the 2024 campaign, the first pick wasn’t secure until the final vestiges of last season with many of the same franchises. Which team will win the dubious honor of the first pick in a class of no sure things at quarterback?
Note: Tankathon provides all records and strength-of-schedule data.
Chasing The First Pick In the 2026 Draft: The Final Countdown
1. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
SOS: .542
Week 18 Opponent: HOME vs. Kansas City
Clinching Scenario: Loss
For the first time in a long while, both teams in this AFC West rivalry possess draft pick implications as the Chiefs are struggling to the finish line. The Raiders won the tank battle of the decade over the similarly moribund Giants in Week 17 with a hilarious cavalcade of errors. Las Vegas and New York were locked in a match of wits by declaring important players and sometimes entire units on the injury report. It resulted in a blowout 34-10 loss last week, clearing the path for the Raiders to clinch the first pick.
Fresh off the brouhaha involving their best player, Maxx Crosby, they are set to empower the Chiefs with a top ten selection with a victory while sabotaging their own chance at the first pick. Kansas City is in its own turmoil with a franchise superstar, albeit for vastly different reasons. Will Week 18 be the last game of Travis Kelce’s Hall of Fame career? Can Vegas head coach Pete Carroll survive Black Monday? Questions abound for both teams, and many will be answered in the coming weeks.
2. New York Giants (3-13)
SOS: .531
Week 18 Opponent: HOME vs. Dallas
Clinching Scenario: Loss and Raiders Win
New York engaged in one of the greatest tank battles not seen since the Germans and Soviets duked it out in the fields of Kursk during World War II. Multiple starters were declared out or limited by injury on both sides. Alas, the Raiders were too inept to keep pace with the erstwhile Giants as both battled hard to a surefire loss. Week 17’s victory over Las Vegas represents yet another meaningless win when the path to the first pick was within grasp again. The Giants repeated the unenviable feat last season, which played a role in Tennessee securing the eventual selection, Cam Ward.
However, all is not lost as they need help from the Raiders pulling off an improbable upset over the wounded Chiefs and a loss against hated archrival Dallas. The Cowboys have nothing to play for except pride and a better draft position. Dallas could figure into the central drama of the offseason, but isn’t likely to change coaches or its core roster. New York, however, is in search of a coach and possibly a new general manager after the bungling of so many key decisions.
3. New York Jets (3-13)
SOS: .550
Week 18 Opponent: AWAY @ Buffalo
Clinching Scenario: Loss and wins by the Giants and the Raiders
The Jets are another stunningly bad team, but without the comic relief (unless you count the staggeringly terrible ownership) to offset fans’ bewilderment. Gotham’s future remains grim, so they desperately need the first selection to generate some needed optimism. They require their MetLife Stadium co-tenants and Vegas to win to secure the rights to a once-promising future. Questions about Aaron Glenn’s tenure have endured all season and hit a crescendo in recent weeks. Fortunately or (unfortunately, depending on your view), the Bills have seeding to play for, so the Jets and Bills might have a mutual understanding. Buffalo needs a win and losses by the Chargers and Texans to move into the five seed.
4. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
SOS: .574
Week 18 Opponent: AWAY @ Jacksonville
Clinching Scenario: Loss and wins by the Raiders, Giants, and Jets
Tennessee briefly held an iron grip on the first selection until a spate of improved play from the offensive line and Cam Ward led to two remarkable wins. Now, their spot within the top five is precarious, but have no fear, Titans fans, as rival Jacksonville comes into town with plenty to play for. The Jaguars need a win to lock up the AFC South title, but could get it with a loss by Houston. They are in play for the top seed, but would require improbable losses by the Broncos and Patriots to get it. Expect Jacksonville to go all out since they have a lot left to play for, and sticking it to their blood rival, Tennessee, is always a good thing. Jacksonville and Houston kick off at the same time, so they won’t know the official results until Sunday night.
The 2025 season was all about Cam Ward’s development, and there have been signs of improvement lately. With the season coming to a close, the next coaching hire is the most critical decision.
5. Arizona Cardinals (3-13)
SOS: .577
Week 18 Opponent: AWAY @ Los Angeles Rams
Clinching Scenario: Loss and wins by the Raiders, Giants, Jets, and Titans
Arizona is mired in an eight-game losing streak and hasn’t been able to elevate itself into the top-three conversation. They’re not even an entertaining bad team, just a bad one with little to no improvement to show for it. Change is undoubtedly on the horizon as Jonathan Gannon fields questions about his job security on a daily basis. Although their season has been over for months, Arizona could play a role in playoff seeding. The Cardinals travel to the City of Angels to take on the Rams. Los Angeles needs a win and help elsewhere to improve from its current sixth seed and overtake archrival San Francisco for the fifth seed. Seattle already clinched the NFC West crown and the top seed, so they have nothing to worry about.
The Cardinals need assistance of their own, as an upset victory lowers their pick to as low as seventh. They have the highest opponent’s SOS of the three-win club, so any loss will help achieve a top-three selection. Both teams in this contest will know their fates by Saturday evening as the 49ers take on Seattle. Expect the Rams to go all out regardless of the situation.