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Looking Ahead To The 2026 Quarterback Carousel

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This past season offered the latest example of what an upgrade at quarterback can do for a franchise, as Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft, was the catalyst for Washington’s first title game appearance since 1991. If you don’t have a quarterback, you don’t have a shot in the NFL, which is why teams spend an inordinate amount of time and resources searching for answers at the position. 

It’s also why we spend a little bit of time every summer looking ahead a year at the quarterback position to try and forecast which teams will be in the market for an upgrade and which players could be available. The demand is always higher than the supply, even though we did have a run of several years this decade where there was at least one high-profile quarterback to switch teams. 

This year, the Seahawks traded QB Geno Smith to the Raiders and then signed QB Sam Darnold to a fairly substantial contract as a replacement following Darnold’s reclamation year with the Vikings in 2024. Rodgers and Wilson also changed teams, while the Jets inked Fields to a pretty decent deal. 

But if it feels like the quarterback moves are becoming a little less blockbustery, you wouldn’t be off the mark. Rodgers and Wilson’s actual on-field production lags far behind their name-brand value at this late stage of their careers. Smith is a quality starter and, for my money, an underrated player, but doesn’t carry the same star power as most of the other names on this list. Darnold is a former top draft pick but it remains to be seen if he can sustain his positive career momentum outside of Minnesota. The Rams flirted with trading Stafford, or perhaps it’s more accurate to say Stafford flirted with other teams. Either way, that would have qualified as a blockbuster deal, the type that meaningfully moves Super Bowl odds, but both sides got back on the same page for 2025. 

Looking ahead to next year, it feels like the lull could continue. 2026 should be a better year for teams that need a quarterback than 2025, as the draft has a little more potential. Unlike other years, however, the potential free agent and trade pools could be thin. It’s hard to say there’s ever a good time to need a new quarterback, but from this vantage point, 2026 doesn’t look promising. 

Leaguewide QB Landscape

The first step in projecting the quarterback carousel a year out is figuring out which teams will need a quarterback, and the first step in that is grouping all of the league’s passers into different buckets. There’s a ranking aspect to this, but there’s also an investment angle. Teams that have sunk high draft picks or big contracts into passers will need significant motivation to move on, either by having access to a major upgrade or by the current starter playing so poorly that it leaves them no choice but to move on. 

Think of this more as descriptive of where each team and quarterback stands right now, not necessarily predicting who the best players are going to be in 2025. 

Elite

An alternative heading for this group could be “Recent & Future MVPs.” Burrow is the only one here without that award, though statistically he was right in the mix with frontrunners this past season. Mahomes and Jackson each have two, and Allen won his first this past year. This is the cream of the crop and the group every other team is chasing. You could make a case that the sheer excellence of this group has influenced how other teams have handled their quarterbacks as they chase players who can help them keep up. 

Established/Paid

Figuring out how to sort this group would provide endless debate show fodder. The common thread that put them all in the same tier for me, however, is how much their teams were willing to fork over in major, big-money contracts. All eight players here have massive deals with huge average annual salaries and guarantees multiple years into the future. So while you might be able to quibble with whether guys like Goff, Purdy and Lawrence deserve to be here or in a lower tier, their contract speaks volumes. 

All eight of these players are also in pretty great standing with their organizations, so it would take a significant collapse to change that. The one player I have my eye on who could possibly be available is Murray. This upcoming season is a big one for the Cardinals. It’s the third year under GM Monti Ossenfort and HC Jonathan Gannon, which means they’ve had ample time to rebuild the roster. Murray is now multiple years removed from his torn ACL and has significant familiarity in the scheme. A playoff berth should be the expectation, if not more. 

If the Cardinals underperform those expectations, it puts the potential for big changes on the table. Murray already had $36.8 million of his over $42 million in 2026 compensation become guaranteed, so that makes it incredibly unlikely he’ll be cut. He’s the kind of player who should have some trade value, however. How much depends on how next season goes but Murray has rare physical gifts that would intrigue a lot of offensive coaches and front offices around the league. 

I wouldn’t say it’s likely that Murray will be traded in 2026. But his contract is the easiest to get out of from all the players listed above, and his team situation is definitely the shakiest. This article is about looking at the possibilities, and a lot can change in a year. 

Arrow Up

All three players here are still on their rookie contracts and the output in their short careers so far have been promising. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and even though last year wasn’t the jump many envisioned for the Texans, they still won 10 games and advanced to the divisional round for the second straight year. He might be more Prescott than Burrow but Houston remains elated with him. 

Daniels won the award the year after Stroud and looks like a potential elite, dual-threat quarterback. How well he sustains this momentum in Year 2 will go a long way toward establishing his place in the NFL QB hierarchy but it’s safe to say he looks like a star. 

Nix had a bumpier rookie season than Daniels and in all likelihood doesn’t have the same ceiling, but he scored 34 total touchdowns and improved dramatically as the season progressed. He’s an outstanding fit with Broncos HC Sean Payton, and Payton’s presence is plenty reason for optimism. Year 2 will be massively important for Nix’s trajectory. The Broncos have improved the roster around him and will have higher expectations than last year when few people really thought they’d do much. 

Solid Veterans

Talk is cheap in the NFL, but when it comes time to write a check or part with a draft pick, teams’ true feelings are revealed. All of these quarterbacks have signed contracts that are significant but a tier or two lower than the upper crust of the position. In an era of ballooning quarterback salaries, this group represents the middle class. 

Tagovailoa is a potential glaring exception here. He’s younger than the rest of this cohort at just 27 and his contract has a significantly higher average annual salary. There’s a legitimate case to put him in the same tier as Love, Lawrence and Goff, as all three signed extensions for similar values last summer. Like that group, Tagovailoa also has guarantees stretching into the future. 

However, there are a few reasons I decided to treat him differently. His guarantees are weaker than Goff, Love, Lawrence and Purdy. All of those players have rolling guarantee structures, which means money becomes guaranteed a year in advance of when it’s owed. For instance, Tagovailoa had his 2026 base salary of $39 million become fully guaranteed this past March, bringing his total guarantees for next year to $54 million. But while those other players have stronger rolling guarantees from 2026 into 2027, Tagovailoa will get just an additional $3 million guaranteed next offseason. 

One factor was probably Tagovailoa’s lengthy injury history that impacted his availability in two of the past three seasons and separates him from the other passers, who largely don’t have the same questions about their ability to stay on the field. Concussions have been the most notable risk for Tagovailoa, but he had hip problems last year and also got through a career-threatening hip injury in his final season at Alabama. All of this concerned the Dolphins enough to build some protections into the deal. 

The other major potential concern for Tagovailoa’s long-term outlook is the state of the Dolphins currently. Miami has not won a playoff game since the turn of the century and seems to have plateaued after a promising start under HC Mike McDaniel. Dolphins GM Chris Grier has been running the team since 2016 with a 75-73 record, but it’s felt like Grier has been flailing a bit the past year or two. The team insists it’s trying to contend but has been making a lot of cost-cutting moves, the latest being the imminent trade of CB Jalen Ramsey despite signing him to a market-setting extension with multiple years left on his deal last September. The vibes aren’t good in Miami and this upcoming season feels like it could go off the rails. 

If that happens and 85-year-old Dolphins owner Stephen Ross cleans house in a bid to try and get some postseason success while he’s still living, all kinds of major changes are possible. Tagovailoa’s guarantees protect him from being cut next year but the Dolphins could try and trade him if a new head coach is not as big a believer in his skills as McDaniel has been. McDaniel has built a scheme that has helped Tagovailoa produce some league-leading numbers, but Tagovailoa’s limitations are also part of the story of how the Dolphins have faded each year. Ultimately I think all of these mitigating factors are weights on Tagovailoa’s job security, weights the other quarterbacks don’t have. 

As for the other three on this list, all have brought their career back from the brink of irrelevancy over the past few seasons and represent the upside for teams chasing reclamation projects at the quarterback position. Smith signed a brand-new contract with the Raiders this offseason that contains guarantees in 2026 that Seattle wasn’t willing to offer. Still, the total value and his age mean the Raiders aren’t tied completely to Smith if he takes a step back this year or if the opportunity to draft a quarterback of the future falls into their laps next spring. 

Mayfield will be going into a contract year in 2026, so this year is big for him to reassert his value to Tampa Bay and earn another long-term contract. Honestly, there’s a good chance the Buccaneers try and get proactive to sign him this summer. Mayfield has over 9,500 passing yards and 69 touchdowns the past two seasons as the Buccaneers have stretched their NFC South dominance to four seasons. They could give him a deal that pushes him up into the next tier, but if they have hesitancies, that will come out in negotiations. Smith had two strong seasons in Seattle but a difference in value led to him being traded this past offseason. For what it’s worth, it does not seem like the Bucs front office has the same hesitancies about Mayfield that Seattle did about Smith. 

Darnold got a three-year, $100 million deal from the Seahawks to replace Smith, and Seattle got him to accept just one year of guarantees which means they’re not tied to anything past this season. That makes 2025 big for Darnold, and the way the Vikings flopped to end last season has not helped a lot of the general public skepticism around his revival. He’ll have the benefit of a familiar scheme with new Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak but the supporting cast is a few cuts below what he had to work with for the Vikings. The Seahawks also already have a potential future starter on the roster in third-round QB Jalen Milroe. 

Old Guys

The two quarterbacks here can still play at a fairly high level (when healthy) but both are 37 years old this year, which raises serious questions about how much each has left in the tank. 

Stafford and the Rams are a situationship at this point, with Los Angeles not wanting to commit to anything more than a year at a time with the Super Bowl-winning passer. That’s led to some drawn-out and occasionally tense moments the past couple of years, and the Rams did let Stafford explore his market this past offseason. Ultimately, the situation in Los Angeles was too good to leave for more money with the Raiders or Giants, and Stafford left money on the table to chase another ring in a familiar setting. Next year is the final year of his contract, so how the 2025 season plays out will likely have a major impact on how those talks proceed. 

Cousins is going to spend this coming season as a backup barring some kind of dramatic development with an injury to another team’s starter that revives a dormant trade market. It can’t just be any injury, either. There is a long list of conditions that will be necessary for a Cousins trade: 

  • The injury has to be severe enough to knock the starter out for all or most of the upcoming season. 
  • The team in question needs to have legitimate contending hopes to justify a trade for another starter. 
  • They also need to have a shaky enough backup situation to necessitate a trade for Cousins as a viable upgrade despite missing the entire offseason and, in all likelihood, a chunk of camp. The longer into camp it gets, the less likely Cousins is viewed as a worthwhile pursuit, barring some sort of scheme familiarity that helps him onboard onto a moving train. 
  • The obstacles that killed Cousins’ market to begin with — his $27.5 million in guarantees this year that the Falcons had unrealistic expectations of how it would be split, plus another $10 million in guarantees in 2026, plus draft pick compensation in a trade — would still have to be overcome. 

Add it all up, and a Cousins trade at this point is equivalent to catching lightning in a bottle. The far, far more likely outcome is that the Falcons release Cousins next year when less of his salary is guaranteed and they can pick up more cap relief. Cutting him loose also allows them to potentially pick up cap relief for his $10 million in 2026 guarantees due to offset language which is common in contracts. It essentially prevents players from double-dipping, so whatever Cousins signs for with another team, up to $10 million, will come off the books for the Falcons. 

Cousins should garner far more interest as a free agent with fewer strings attached than he did as a trade target. He’ll be another year removed from injuries which he admitted held him back last year and led to his benching. There’s also potential for him to come off the bench as an injury replacement if starting Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. goes down and rehabilitate his image further with some strong tape. There still probably won’t be another team lining up to give him $100 million guaranteed, and Cousins will need to accept that he’s a bridge starter and not a franchise guy at this stage of his career, but he should have a strong market nonetheless. 

Jury Out

All of these players are young quarterbacks who are still on their rookie contracts, including actual rookies this year, who it’s too soon to say where exactly they fall, good or bad, on the hierarchy at the position. Some, like Maye, have certainly shown high-level flashes to generate significant optimism about their long-term outlook, but league history is littered with players who flashed and then failed to build on that. 

By virtue of their draft capital and the fact that they’re still just in their second years, Maye and Williams will have some of the longest runways of this group,p even if they struggle or fail to take as much of a step forward as anticipated. Both are playing for new head coaches this year, but both coaches took the job in part because of a significant belief in the potential of the young passers they were inheriting. It’s fair to say the long-term job security of Patriots HC Mike Vrabel and Bears HC Ben Johnson is tied to how well they can get Maye and Williams to play. 

Ward was the No. 1 pick this year and that should get him at least a two-year runway to show whether he can be a franchise starter for the Titans. I say “should” because we just saw Young get benched by the Panthers two games into his second season as a former No. 1 pick by a new head coach who didn’t draft him, and it’s definitely fair to question whether Titans HC Brian Callahan is on thin ice this year. 

The good news for Ward and Young is that the latter earned his way back into the starting lineup and actually looked like a gamer down the stretch, regaining the trust and belief of HC Dave Canales. Young is locked in as the starter for the Panthers in 2025, his third season, and the team thinks Young can help power them back to relevancy with a real step forward. The stakes are high, as the team will need to make a decision about Young’s fifth-year option next May. If he doesn’t maintain or build on his level of play in the second half of last year, his job security will be called back into question. 

Penix and McCarthy are second-year former first-round picks who will be going into their first seasons as full-time, Day 1 starters. Both have small sample sizes that make it hard to project what they’ll be, three games to close last year in Penix’s case and a handful of preseason snaps in McCarthy’s. Both have strong supporting casts that should help them get off to a good start, but both are also inheriting teams with high expectations, lessening some of the grace period teams typically give young quarterbacks. Both also have notable injury histories, and more than anything that might be the biggest threat to their future. Young passers need reps to grow, so staying on the field is paramount for Penix and McCarthy, almost as much as playing well and winning. 

Richardson is a potential cautionary tale of what happens when a young, talented quarterback doesn’t get the reps they need to progress. The flashes from Richardson are sky high with his blend of size, mobility and arm strength, but he played just four games as a rookie and 11 last year, losing time due to both injuries and being benched for inconsistency. Dating back to Florida, he only started one year. Now the Colts have signed veteran QB Daniel Jones to push Richardson, and this is a real competition, not just one for show. Richardson lost reps again due to injury this spring and the tea leaves suggest he might be behind Jones. Time will tell, but this is a huge season for everyone in Indianapolis with a new owner and the possibility for major changes if the Colts miss the playoffs again. 

Dart and Shough are rookies, and while rookies customarily get time to sink or swim, circumstances suggest this is a pivotal season for the trajectory of both. The Giants want to bring Dart along slowly as a developmental project but there’s real pressure on GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll to show progress this season. If that doesn’t happen and both get the axe, Dart has to prove himself to a new regime next year that doesn’t have the same level of investment. Although he was a first-round pick, there’s a real difference between a player taken in the top ten and one taken in the back half of the round like Dart. He won’t get the same leeway as Ward in Tennessee, for instance. 

Shough has even less invested in him than Dart, and while he has a clearer path to the starting job in New Orleans with just Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener to beat, his lower draft capital and age will work against him. Shough turns 26 in September, putting him much closer to guys like Purdy and Lawrence than his fellow draft classmates. If he struggles, it’s more likely the Saints write him off as a backup and sunk cost and look for a new starter next year. 

Bridge Quarterbacks

Bridge quarterbacks are signed to start for a short period of time and help a team bridge the gap from one franchise starter to the next while remaining competitive to some degree. They’re often older players, as you can see here, and all three of these players signed one-year deals. Rodgers has little pressure on his starting job behind him in Pittsburgh, but bridge quarterbacks often are perched tenuously ahead of younger players on the depth chart and that’s the case for Wilson in New York (Dart) and Flacco in Cleveland (Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders). 

Odds are high all three of these teams will be in the market for new starters next offseason.  

Reclamation Projects

The reclamation project is all the rage in the NFL right now after what seems to be a new quarterback every year who blossoms from written off to competent starter. Typically reclamation projects are former highly drafted (aka talented) passers who for one reason or another did not translate with their original teams, but are revived by a change of scenery and another opportunity to start. Ryan Tannehill, Goff, Mayfield, Smith and most recently Darnold have all fallen into this archetype. 

This year the Jets and Colts are trying to lengthen the list with bets on Fields and Jones. Fields is on his third team in as many seasons after the Bears traded him to the Steelers last year, and after the Steelers passed him over for Wilson last season. Still just 26 years old and entering his fifth season, Fields caught the eye of the Jets who actually inked him to a two-year deal worth $40 million in total, including $10 million in 2026 guarantees. That suggests the team plans to give him a long runway to try and prove himself, perhaps two seasons. 

Jones got just a one-year deal but he has a real chance to start games for the Colts this year, either by beating Richardson in the competition this summer or by stepping in if Richardson is injured again. If he plays well and gets the Colts into the postseason, there’s a real chance Indianapolis commits to him with a longer, more lucrative deal. If not, other teams will surely be interested in the 28-year-old former first-rounder, who certainly didn’t have the best supporting surroundings with the Giants. 

That being said, I have some skepticism that the reclamation trend will continue this season. Not every failed first-round pick is successful in different settings. Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky are recent reclamation projects that have flopped. To bring out the best in a quarterback, the new environment must be a lot healthier than the former one. Some guys just can’t overcome their flaws even in positive situations. 

Fields is reunited with former Ohio State teammate, WR Garrett Wilson, but outside of that the Jets don’t have a lot of other weapons, and the new offensive coaching staff under former Lions assistant Tanner Engstrand is a wildcard, though certainly one with some upside. Colts HC Shane Steichen had a promising start in his first season, but he and the offense stalled out hard in Year 2 — and he comes from a coaching tree (Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, Nicki Sirianni) that has shown a tendency to have those lulls. There’s definitely talent on offense for the Colts but the environment as a whole has the potential to be bad if the season starts to go south. 

Teams Likeliest To Be In QB Market?

Taking everything above into account, these are the teams that are likeliest to be in the quarterback market next offseason:

Cleveland Browns

The Browns threw a bunch of darts at the quarterback position this offseason. None of them were expensive but that means Cleveland will likely get what it paid for. If it turns out the team didn’t land a winning scratch-off ticket, they’ll be right back in the mix in 2026, although with a little more ammunition and motivation to be bigger players. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Both Rodgers and the Steelers have actually been hard to pin down in recent years when it comes to their plans. So nothing should technically be ruled out even though Rodgers is just under contract for one season in Pittsburgh. Still, the most likely outcome is that this ends up as a one-year partnership, leaving the Steelers searching for a new starter once again next offseason. 

New Orleans Saints

History says a 25-year-old second-round quarterback is most likely not the long-term answer at the position. If Shough doesn’t beat the odds — which would probably entail playing well enough to win enough games that the Saints can’t draft a replacement — then the Saints will be looking at their options again next year. 

Dark Horses

These teams could end up needing a new starter depending on how things play out in 2025:

Indianapolis Colts

If it turns out that the Colts don’t have a quarterback capable of getting them back to the playoffs between Jones and Richardson, then odds are a house-cleaning is coming in 2026. There’s already a new owner, and that could mean a new coach, new GM and in all likelihood a new quarterback. 

Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks GM John Schneider is on a sneaky warm seat, especially with how he handled this past offseason, essentially blowing up the whole offense. If that blows up in his face, the Seahawks could either have a new GM or Schneider could be under even more pressure. Either way, that trickles down to the quarterback. 

New York Giants

There’s a world in which Dart plays well enough once he takes the reins that it saves Schoen and Daboll for another season — and despite all the talk about the Giants ideally being able to redshirt Dart, my hunch is he’s in the lineup before November. There’s also a world where the 2025 Giants look an awful lot like the 2024 and 2023 Giants, and owner John Mara finally has to make a change. From there, it’s hit or miss whether the new regime believes in Dart. 

New York Jets

New Jets HC Aaron Glenn hasn’t shied away from expectations even though he’s taking on a slight rebuilding project. So while Fields’ contract says he could have a two-year runway, it’s incumbent on him to play well enough or win enough games to get that second year. 

Carolina Panthers

Young’s rebound was a great story last year. If he doesn’t sustain it in 2025, it will be another massive setback for the rebuilding Panthers. Harsh but that’s the NFL. 

Unlikely But Also Maybe Likelier Than You Think

Crazy stuff happens in the NFL. For various reasons, these three teams could end up taking a spin on the QB carousel:

Arizona Cardinals

When NFL teams don’t meet expectations, changes usually are close behind. The Cardinals have higher expectations in 2025. If they don’t live up to them, there could be fallout. 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins feel like a house of cards at the moment that’s ready to collapse in 2025. If that happens, watch out for major changes. 

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams and Stafford already flirted with a breakup this past offseason. That door remains cracked open in 2026. 

Which QBs Are Potentially Available?

The market for quarterback help is only half the equation. The other half is which options are available. It’s usually sparse. Teams aren’t in the business of giving away good quarterbacks unless there are extenuating circumstances, and the draft is always a crapshoot. 

Free Agents

Cousins and Darnold are listed with asterisks because they are under contract for 2026 right now and would need to be cut to be available. However, there’s a decent chance that ends up happening, particularly for Cousins. Darnold is on much firmer ground but needs to play at a certain level to be back in Seattle in 2026. 

There would be a fascinating debate about how to rank this quartet if all four truly end up available. Darnold has youth on his side but nowhere near the resume or established production of the other three. Cousins is a little younger than Rodgers and Wilson but his peak was also not at a Hall of Fame level. Ultimately, the teams in the market would all probably rank this group a little differently based on their situation and the fit into the scheme. 

The other group worth mentioning are players who profile more as backups but due to demand could be thrust into starting opportunities. Think Flacco in Cleveland this year. That group includes Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo and Marcus Mariota. Teams would feel comfortable with all of those players as backups. As starters, it’s much more nebulous, but all of these players have had starting stints in the past and would bring a certain floor to the position. When it gets bad for NFL teams at quarterback, it gets really bad, and even rebuilding teams have incentives to avoid as much ugliness on the field as possible. 

Trade Market? 

We’ve already explored the situations for Stafford, Murray and Tagovailoa in-depth, so I won’t add too much to what’s already a long article here. I will say that Stafford wouldn’t have gotten the Rams a first-round pick in a trade this past offseason and likely won’t going forward, largely due to his age and salary. The Cardinals and Dolphins would have some challenges getting a first for Murray and Tagovailoa as well I think, again due to their significant salaries. Murray has the upside to make that kind of return more likely. 

The most likely quarterback to be traded might actually be Richardson. In a scenario where he loses the starting job or the Colts clean house after this season, Richardson becomes a potential reclamation candidate for another team. He’d still have one year left on his rookie contract but a new regime might want to cut the cord and move on with a different starting quarterback. Indianapolis could likely get a third or a fourth-round pick, or equivalent value, based on past trades at the position, and Richardson’s flashes of potential are sure to intrigue other teams who believe they have better developmental environments. 

NFL Draft

Teams and the media usually monitor incoming quarterback classes at least a year out. Some players take college football by storm and are easy to project as potential first-round prospects. Those players don’t come around every year, though. Last year, there weren’t any sure-fire first-round prospects, let alone players seen as worth the No. 1 pick. 

This year is better but how much better depends on who you ask. A non-exhaustive list of potential first-round quarterbacks includes: 

Manning probably would have been a first-round pick this past year, even with just two career starts, because the potential he’s shown already is top-notch. The last name certainly doesn’t hurt. However, it’s far from a guarantee he plays well or even declares for the 2026 draft, as both his uncles stayed in school for multiple seasons. 

Allar is the other player on this list who would have had a good shot to be selected in the first round had he declared this past year — though the fact he went back suggests his feedback was at least mixed. He checks a lot of the prototypical boxes for the NFL, including size, arm strength, mobility and experience at a big-time program. The actual tape has been more mixed, especially against top competition. Allar could cement himself as a top-five pick or end up sliding based on how this upcoming season plays out. 

Sellers is an outstanding athlete and high-powered thrower who is still working to find consistency as a player, like Richardson in Indianapolis and Milroe the last couple of years at Alabama. His potential is sky-high if he puts it together and will intrigue teams regardless. But the failures of players like Richardson and former 49ers QB Trey Lance seem to have made some teams gun-shy about that particular archetype at the position. A second season of starting experience is important for Sellers, and if it goes well, he could also be a top-five pick. 

Klubnik and Nussmeier have big-time program experience, and Klubnik could enter the NFL next year with over 40 starts. Nussmeier contemplated declaring this past year but elected to go back for a second year as a starter, as otherwise inexperience would have been held against him. How this coming season plays out will go a long way toward determining their draft stock but it’s worth noting both are closer to the game manager style of player than the high-level physical traits of Allar/Sellers. They’re not undersized but they’re also not imposing physical specimens. 

Mendoza and Mateer fit the profile of relative unknowns who could rocket up the draft board with a stellar season. Mendoza is a big-bodied and big-armed passer who transferred from Cal to Indiana this offseason to help the Hoosiers try and sustain their Playoff success. Mateer landed at Oklahoma after compiling 44 total touchdowns, 15 on the ground, at Washington State in 2024. 

There are enough players with potential to say that the 2026 class should be better than 2025, with Ward going No. 1 to the Titans and a lot of other “beauty is in the eye of the beholder” prospects. But all of these players remain projections who still have to put things together this upcoming season. Think of it as a hand of dice. The odds of getting a six with five dice are better than with three. 

There’s still a chance of rolling five ones, though. 

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