Milton is dripping with potential, but it just hasn’t quite all come together just yet.
After six seasons at the college level, Joe Milton is finally set to go pro. The former four-star recruit from Florida began his college career at Michigan, where he became the starter in 2020 after sitting for two seasons. He ended up eventually landing at Tennessee, where he’d eventually earn a couple more chances to put all the pieces together.
An elite frame. An elite arm. Athleticism. But accuracy issues, questions about his processing ability and the fact that he’s already 24 make this a complicated case.
Joe Milton’s college career
After just a handful of starts at Michigan, Milton was benched for ineffective play. He threw four touchdown passes against four interceptions, and Jim Harbaugh pulled the plug pretty quickly. Milton hit the transfer portal, and Josh Heupel — in big need of a quarterback in his first season at Tennessee — came calling. Heupel was no stranger to Milton, having recruited him at Missouri during his time as the Tigers’ offensive coordinator.
Four years after his recruitment, Milton ended up as Heupel’s starter in Knoxville. However, that first stint would only last six quarters. Milton handled Bowling Green to open the season, but an ugly showing against Pittsburgh raised plenty of doubts. The elite-armed Milton overthrew several wide open shots down the field, handicapping the Tennessee offense early in the game.
Then Milton went down with an injury, which opened the door for Hendon Hooker. The rest is history.
Here’s a look at Milton’s early struggles against Pitt. The overthrows here and lack of placement set the narrative for the rest of Milton’s time with Tennessee.
Hendon Hooker went on to lead Tennessee to a No. 1 ranking in 2022, nearly winning the Heisman Trophy in the process. His special season ended early with a torn ACL with just two games left on the schedule.
To Milton’s credit, he stuck around with Tennessee after losing the starting job. You don’t see that much anymore in college football, but Milton waited his turn for a second chance at the job in 2023. Unfortunately for Hooker, the second Milton era began early at the end of the 2022 season.
With uncertainty still surrounding the consistency of Milton, a date with Clemson in the Orange Bowl was the perfect test run. Milton delivered some of his best tape to date, showing improved touch and confidence within the offense. Tennessee pulled the upset, beating Clemson 31-14.
From there, the hype train rolled. With all summer to think about that Clemson performance, NFL Draft analysts saw the potential. Some even predicted a potential Anthony Richardson rise up boards due to his elite traits.
Viral videos of him throwing an orange 100+ yards, a football 80+ — the tone was set for 2023. Milton had a tough act to follow with Hooker now in the NFL, but Heupel’s scheme and Milton’s experience now in the system had everyone buying in.
The result? Tennessee took a clear step backwards and Milton was up and down throughout the season.
He had his bright spots for sure, but the offense was just different. It almost seemed like the staff lost some trust in him somewhere along the way, with the offense evolving into a heavy pop-screen approach. Milton’s gigantic arm was hardly even used down the field, and an element of explosiveness was missing all season long.
For reference, Hooker led the country in yards per attempt (9.5) in 2022. Milton ranked 48th overall (7.9) in 2023. Tennessee went from the top offense in the country in 2022, to the 19th ranked unit one year later.
Milton’s processing ability wasn’t on par with Hooker’s, which would likely explain the quick, no-read passing attack. In fairness to Milton, his receivers didn’t help his cause. He was also dealing with the loss of Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman to the NFL. The result was just a pedestrian passing attack that nobody was really scared of down the field.
Inconsistent reads, touch and placement once again held Milton back overall. However, we once again got big flashes of brilliance too. The first half against Alabama, the full game on the road at Kentucky, then the finish on Senior Day against Vanderbilt reminded us all of what Milton could be.
In total, Milton finished 2023 with 2,813 yards, 20 touchdown and five interceptions. He stayed away from making huge mistakes overall, but his play seemed timid and measured most of the time.
How does Joe Milton project to the NFL?
After six seasons in college, Joe Milton will enter the NFL as a 24-year old project. That’s a large, immediate ding on his draft prospects, but I’m going to guess that his elite traits will make someone believe in him.
The 6-5, 230 pound passer will probably immediately have the strongest arm in the entire league, and his athleticism is another major plus — even though he didn’t use it as much as we all wanted at Tennessee.
The question then becomes, how patient are you willing to be with a 24-year old project quarterback? Would he be able to make the transition from an up-tempo spread offense to more of a pro-style attack? Milton struggled to start that process in the Senior Bowl.
Can you straighten out his accuracy issues? The old Mike Leach comment on that topic stands out to me here, although I would argue that Milton made some strides in that area during his time with Heupel’s staff.
Milton’s best shot is to land with a team as a third option on the roster, with plenty of time to settle in and learn a new system. Landing with a team like the Bills under a passer with a similar skill set in Josh Allen makes some sense, or maybe even the Jets/Giants/Patriots who all have seemingly expiring quarterback situations coming in the next couple of years. Despite all the issues, the upside will always be there with Milton. And that’s why he’s more than likely going to hear his name called next week in the NFL Draft.
Projected NFL Draft range: Rounds 5-7